proper corona admin, vol 101 - guesswork

It's been about two weeks since Massachusetts rolled back its outdoor mask mandate, and I would say that people have adopted a more relaxed approach to masks since the decision. It was not, however, the sort of light switch moment I'd expected - it wasn't like everyone suddenly put their masks into storage on April 30. It seems that on an average outdoor trip, the majority of the people I've passed in May have been wearing masks. I would also guess that more people are going to wear masks today than they did at this time last year. So, what's going on? I'm tempted to make a snarky comment - I guess we all follow the science, except when we make up our own - but the situation, as it has been all along, is more complicated, and not one that would benefit from the generalizations of my broad brushstrokes.

If I had to make a guess, I would suggest that the past year has changed us, making us more likely to persist with these masks throughout this tentatively hopeful month. We spent much of the last year making one aimless guess after another, inventing convoluted explanations about risk despite having almost no understanding of the virus. We are, in other words, D+ students, on track to graduate from COVID University by the slenderest margin, but we are battle-tested - we know that nothing is guaranteed except the uncertainty of the situation. Does the vaccine protect me? Can the vaccinated asymptomatically pass along the virus? Are my unmasked neighbors fully vaccinated, or partially, or not? We don't know much, but we do know this - it's not worth guessing anymore.