Last week, I added an extra thought that innovation is unlikely when markets discourage profits. But that's a long-term thought - what about now? I think a lot of small businesses are on their last legs at the moment and laundromats are no exception. The landscape for local laundry will change in the future, likely toward a model that accepts new forms of payment; it's hard to imagine the next generation collecting quarters for the laundry, so we know we'll get there somehow.
My guess is that the coin shortage will be contribute, perhaps mightily, to the eventual extinction of the coin laundromat. As each coin laundry closes, customers will shift their business to surviving competitors, which will most likely accept card payment. The coin laundromats that survive will likely be among the stronger operations and might draw on their strength to invest in a new payment system. The government could step in and propose policy solutions to save some laundromats. A program that offers to help laundromats convert to card payment systems is sensible because it eliminates an existential threat, but this is expensive; I have no expectations for such a program to be implemented on a widespread scale. The better bet is some kind of cash injection into the economy, which might help some customers acquire quarters but eventually creates inflationary pressure. Inflation means an opportunity to pay off prior investments but this only benefits firms that made investments, which we determined last time does not include struggling firms due to the dynamics previously described; inflation reinforces the initial advantage for the wealthier firms.
In other words, my guess is that the coin shortage will put the weakest firms out of business, redistribute customers toward stronger firms, and in the long-term exacerbate existing inequality between Main Street and Wall Street. Ronald Reagan's smile surely trickles down from the heavens, or maybe these missing quarters are glinting in the sun as they accumulate to the top; in any case, an unrestrained free market fetish reinforces inequality by forcing market share to accumulate at the top.
