I'm back today to add some extra thoughts to my original post, which went up at the end of June.
Let's start with my annual rant about car culture; it's long overdue. Since I was born in 1987, over 1.2 million people have died on America's roads. Again - one point two million people. Using recent statistical trends and ruling out major culture changes, I'm comfortable estimating an additional 1-2 million people will die on America's roads during the remainder of my lifetime. Imagine visiting me on my deathbed and hearing my last words - three million road fatalities in my lifetime...
As noted above, I've ruled out culture as a way to change the future. Our driving culture is corrosive, but we seem happy with it. Quite frankly, it's almost impressive how consistently people have died on our roads despite all the advancements of the past three decades - we're committed, or should be. I'll concede that the trend is generally downward, but progress has been slow; we've moved from an annual death toll of around 45K to 35K over my lifetime. The reduction is nothing to sneeze at (not that we should be sneezing at anything these days) but in my mind I aim a little higher, I aim for zero, so if we continue at this rate I will need to live another one hundred years or so if I want to see the day.
One reason I'm skeptical of culture change is that when I think back to all the drivers I've sat with, I can only recall one person who drove safely during 100% of my passenger time (and I'm sure the realities of old age will soon ruin her perfect record). It's not a massive surprise that drivers pile up minor infractions like they are on some kind of misdemeanor scavenger hunt - speeding a little bit here, not checking every blind spot there, all while rolling a stop sign after that first third drink of the night; my driving instructor bragged that she had successfully argued her way out of twenty-five tickets in traffic court. A revolver with 10,000 chambers isn't banned from Russian Roulette.
I've never understood why so many people die in this country every single year without noticeable public outcry about the tragedies. But perhaps my longtime confusion has clarified my understanding of America's bumbling COVID-19 response. Some people are finding great meaning in life at the moment by waking up every morning, donning their mask, and scolding others for strutting about uncovered, all in The Name of Science. I feel bad for these science evangelists because they've forgotten about those annual automobile fatality rates; they've forgotten the base rate. Getting people to wear masks by explaining the life-saving science is like trying to sell umbrellas to swimmers by extolling the virtues of dryness. When history looks back on this moment, they won't say we were unprepared because we ignored the warnings, acted slowly, or elected clueless leaders - they will say a country that never cared about preventable deaths simply didn't stand a chance.
