Those who read TOA with one eye on the abacus will have surely noted an odd phenomenon - despite my claim that this blog produces an average of 300 words a day, the true 'on average' (!) number is always going to be higher (1).
Like with any accounting trick, there are a couple of ways to demonstrate the reality. Let's say I post a 900 word essay every three days. One stat is the running average - see below (an asterisk (*) denotes a new post):
*Day 1 - 900 words per day
Day 2 - 450 words per day
Day 3 - 300 words per day
*Day 4 - 450 words per day
Day 5 - 360 words per day
Day 6 - 300 words per day
The budget method looks like this:
*Day 1 - +600 words
Day 2 - +300 words
Day 3 - on budget
*Day 4 - +600 words
Day 5 - +300 budget
Day 6 - on budget
Both methods tell the same story, but which is better? I think it depends on the context. I prefer running averages if I'm using the information as one factor among many in a decision. For example, I use running averages to track my writing time, and I try to prioritize writing if the average falls below my goal of 90 minutes per day. But this is only a guide, it's not like I cancel all my plans so I can write like mad anytime my average drops below the target because decisions about writing include too many other factors. If it's 1AM and I'm tired, I have to go to bed regardless of the suggestions made by my writing metrics.
The budget method is better for the TOA word count because my main concern is tracking reader workload. The budget speaks in the language of accumulated reader fatigue at the start of the next post and the metric helps me understand the appropriate length. I'm currently massively above budget (a shade over 2000 words) so it's probably going to be two posts per week until I'm back under budget.
I don't think most people worry too much about the relative strengths and weaknesses of budgets and running averages, but I highly encourage taking a moment to reflect on the most appropriate method. A budget is ideal if you allow it to dictate quick adjustments to your plan, but if you are going to stick to the course then perhaps a running average paints a better picture.
Footnotes / endnotes
0. TLDR...
Casino gamblers 'budget' by leaving the debit card at home - once the cash is gone, the night is over.
1. This post increased the TOA budget deficit by 125 - we're 2300 words in the red since May 31.
This doesn't even consider my accounting principles, which include 'buy one get one' Sundays and only counting posts if they exceed one hundred and fifty words.
