The recent talk about reopening has given me a chance to dust off my game theory skills. Simply, game theory means 'if-then' thinking to work out a decision. In the context of reopening, I'm finding game theory a useful way to work out the consequences for my possible decisions. For the most part, I'll probably stay away for quite some time.
The logic is very simple. The places first to reopen will attract those most tolerant of risk, and make these places more dangerous. I know our bars and restaurants will take significant precautions and many of their customers will be far more careful than me. But in this pandemic, the issue is just one careless person, and these are the people who will be out and about as soon as we reopen.
I've used a similar logic just walking down the street these past two months. If someone approaches without a mask, I duck out of the way. It's not because I'm paranoid about 'asymptomatic superspreaders', it's because the people who take risks are more likely to get infected, and people who take risks include those who don't wear masks.
