Hi all,
We’re almost there – please see below for part 5 of my daily reminders breakdown.
HALT - know the base rate
The base rate means the underlying aggregate data from which emerges any single observation. If I'm 6' 2" (I am) then that's the single observation - the base rate would be the average height, 5' 9". (Although it's generally interchangeable with average, it's not a perfect substitute.) I think understanding base rates is the most important skill in statistics or data analysis. I also think it is the most easily forgotten or overlooked skill. I use this reminder to keep myself from forgetting.
HALT is a specific acronym – Hungry, Angry, Lonely, Tired – and it’s a reference to how people make poor decisions when they feel any one of those four conditions. I like having HALT here because it reminds me that not all observations are created equally and that I must always remember that the base rate for decisions made under HALT conditions is far different from those made when people feel comfortable. A good example for how I apply this is thinking along the lines of - do I really want to say that... or am I just hungry?
Underestimate affinity at your own risk
As a generally friendly person, I expect to get along with almost anybody. I also tend to feel I fit in pretty well within a variety of different situations. I recognized one day that the downside of this mentality was the possibility of overlooking those moments when I was not merely getting along but connecting, not just fitting in but belonging. A lifetime spent getting along and fitting in will go by quickly and fruitfully because there are ample opportunities to get along and fit in every single day. On the other hand, opportunities for true connection and belonging are rare (and often disappear in a heartbeat). I can no longer afford to throw away the glimpses of what I might see only a handful of times in my lifetime.
Accept invitations, but protect time
This line evolved recently from just ‘accept invitations’. At the core of the thought is recognition that although my openness is a strength, the downside is stretching myself too thin by giving more of myself than I can replenish. I think this has been a consistent problem for me. When I think about it, I struggle to look back and identify the choices I’ve made purely for myself. I think understanding the time I need for myself and establishing good boundaries around that time is the best way to continue doing what I do well without draining myself of much needed energy.
Try to win short games, avoid losing long games
I added this thought to test a recent theory. At its core, what I’m thinking about is success and how duration affects the way we define success. The beginning of anything is a time for establishing relevance through acquisition, initiative, and growth. This mentality demonstrates how at the start of anything we are satisfied only with progress, advancement, or improvement. Eventually, we reach a point where we can no longer advance without risking a loss disproportionate to the potential gain. At this inflection point, we must refocus our priorities to protect our gains and fight off the threats to stability.
What I hope to learn from this idea is how to interact with people who are at the various points on this progression. Ultimately, I’d like to develop a better understanding of how to solve the problems that are inevitable whenever those with opposing worldviews in this context come into contact with each other.
