The main purpose of Annie Duke’s Thinking In Bets is to help others improve their decision-making skills. Although her book is full of many helpful tips and strategies, I thought a handful of specific ideas stood out in comparison to the rest.
First, I liked the suggestion to always identify as many alternative approaches as possible. The thought reminded me of something I read in a different book – a lack of good alternatives often leads to poor decisions. Duke recommends starting this process by analyzing winning outcomes and thinking of different ways to replicate the same result. This approach is a little easier than doing the same with a losing outcome because the positive result removes the ‘what-if’ factor that might cloud an inexperienced thinker’s analysis.
A second tactic I wish to highlight is the importance of remaining outcome-blind when considering a decision. This is a problem we might encounter when we are repeatedly faced with the same choice and have a history of results to consider as part of the decision. Although there is always a certain wisdom in sticking to a winning plan, it’s crucial to take the time to analyze those past outcomes and ensure that luck did not play an outsized role in creating the positive result.
I liked Duke’s explanation of how working backward from a goal or target is one helpful way to envision a successful decision. The idea also works in reverse if we think about what obstacles might prevent our success and plan ways to maneuver around those impediments. This advice strikes me as particularly useful for long-term or complex decisions where the inputs or factors we can influence today do not have any obvious or visible immediate consequences – working out the process in this manner will prevent us from making any irreversible choices that will doom our potential for success in the future.
Finally, Duke reminds us that the recent past does more to shape our emotions than the big picture. Those making important decisions must assess their emotional fitness to do so and seek out appropriate assistance as needed. If a decision must be made alone, we should always consider recent events and ask ourselves whether our emotions associated with those events are influencing the way we are considering the factors involved in the current decision.
