Hi folks,
I’ve posted a few thoughts lately about the New England Patriots, their ‘Big Three’, and the possible decline of their helmet football ‘dynasty’ sometime in the near future. Most of these posts were written late last season and I therefore had to keep some of my analysis (‘anaylsis’) as general as possible to guard against the possibility of real-life events rendering my posts out of date. Today, though, I’ll chime in with some specific thoughts about what the various people involved might do to bring about the end many are suspecting is right around the corner.
First, it seems like right now we can safely rule out scenarios where Belichick will get sacked. There just isn’t evidence right now that Belichick’s view of Brady has soured. There is also no hint of frustration on the part of Kraft toward the coach. It’s possible that Brady harbors some ill-sentiment toward Belichick but this would only get Belichick sacked if Brady was correct about Belichick being a bad fit for the team (which he wouldn’t be).
The resignation scenario is the only plausible way Belichick would ever coach elsewhere. The man is notorious for keeping his cards pressed right against his chest. If he thought Kraft was causing the infrastructure to slip, he might leave. The counter-argument that he might stay and try to repair or rebuild the infrastructure is a fair point but at this moment Belichick wields almost all the decision making authority on the football side – so what lever is left for him to pull in New England? My bet is that once things slip in New England, Belichick resigns right away (or just retires).
There is a small chance that Brady gets the wrong idea at some point and decides to leave. This makes sense at one level but given his age ‘leaving’ and ‘retiring’ are almost the same decision. Brady is perhaps among the best ten players in the league but he is also the oldest elite player, possibly ever. I doubt he’ll get traded or demand the opportunity to sign elsewhere at this point, leaving retirement as the likely next move. What happens after that is anybody’s guess. By definition, this is exactly the type of thing that cannot be predicted.
The wild card here is Jonathan Kraft. I haven’t put much thought into his role thus far beyond merely mentioning his name but he is an important character. Jonathan is essentially next in line after his father leaves the ownership position. His ascent into the role will alter the dynamics of these relationships and makes something like scenario #2 or #4 that I outlined in my prior post suddenly more plausible during the transition period. It is unclear to me when this change will happen, however, so I don’t have much more to add to the thought at the moment.
For those reading my ramblings and wondering what would happen in more complex scenarios – Brady blames both Kraft and Belichick, for example – just keep in mind that with a little work the ‘complex’ scenario probably simplifies down to one of the eight I outlined last time. That's the beauty of game theory.
And if you aren't the sort to simply accept game theory, then just assume Kraft will do something egocentric. He is, after all, a billionaire owner, and no one becomes a billionaire owner without having a massive ego. If it comes down to it, he'll find a way to remind Brady and Belichick of a truth reminiscent of Chris Rock's bit of age-old wisdom: in a world where some people get huge checks while other people sign them, every dispute is resolved by the guy holding the pen doing whatever it is that he wants.
