In my recent review of Jonathan Wilson’s Anatomy of Liverpool, I noted how his description of Liverpool’s various managerial changes over the years reinforced a critical truth about organizations – when there is a sense of imminent decline within the organization, the manager usually leaves first. As I mentioned in another recent post, I thought about this after I read the January ESPN piece about the Patriots that predicted the imminent end of their helmet football dynasty.
The article in question jumped from point to point and created a whirlwind of intrigue and speculation in its aftermath. Fans dialed into sports radio and speculated about the true intentions of the big names involved in the piece. Would owner Robert Kraft step aside to allow son Jonathan into the lead role? Would quarterback Tom Brady retire and bring his incredible career to an end? But the key question for me always comes back to the main lesson from Wilson’s book – always look at the manager. In the context of the Patriots, this means the key question is – would coach Bill Belichick leave?
I am most interested in what Belichick does because his departure would be the only reliable signal of the organization’s imminent decline. If Belichick left, it would mean that the New England Patriots were no longer an organization with the infrastructure required to retain the best helmet football coach of his generation. This is an easy fact to lose sight of, especially if Belichick offers the usual list of reasons any manager gives for departing (right time for his family, old age, better opportunity elsewhere, etc). Although the reasons given for a departure might ring 100% true, losing Belichick would also mean a departure from the last two decades (when the infrastructure was sufficient to keep the best coach around from quitting) so if Belichick did indeed coach elsewhere in the future (instead of retiring) it would at least be evidence of something having changed in the organization that made it a less appealing place for him to work than it was in the past.
The question of whether Belichick would leave addresses the single truth of all organizations – when the organization declines, the managers leave first. It doesn't matter if the manager steps down or is sacked – one way or the other, when a negative outlook causes trust and confidence disappear, the managers should start preemptively packing up.
This truth makes an article like the ESPN one – which essentially claimed to pinpoint the exact moment the decline of the New England franchise began – a far more difficult concept to execute than on first glance. The challenge of making such a prediction is that most organizations will already be in decline long before the outside world becomes aware of it. It’s similar to how a person is already sick when summoning a doctor for a diagnosis – the flight of middle management is merely the telling cough of a long-sick organization. Writing a piece about the Patriots and saying – hey, here comes the end – is really difficult while Belichick is still around.
It would be a lot like a primary care doctor determining a patient was in perfect health at Thanksgiving yet still predicting an imminent onset of illness sometime before Christmas. The rare occasions where an illness is caught before it manifests with debilitating symptoms requires a doctor with a detailed knowledge of the underlying disease process, a sharp eye for recognizing the right warning signals, and an intimate knowledge of how these might manifest in the specific patient. The combination of these three factors is exceedingly rare.
In helmet football, the equivalent of these factors is a little simpler but that doesn't make it any more likely that a journalist will sniff out the impending decline. If it does happen, it usually means the journalist understands the two key relationships within any team's structure – the owner with the coaches and the coaches with the players. If someone understands these relationship dynamics at an expert level, it may be possible to predict the organization’s decline before the head coach leaves. The ESPN piece touched on this idea briefly but I didn’t think it demonstrated enough understanding of these dynamics for me to take its prediction seriously (1).
However, the attempt did get me thinking about what it might look like if these relationships were turning sour and, in the process, signaling the beginning of the end for the Patriots. The most important factor here is, again, the head coach. As the main representative of the coaching staff, he must work with both the owner and the players (while the owner and the players do not really need to interact at all, at least in a direct professional context) (2). If life within the organization becomes stressful, the two key relationships come under intense pressure and the trust among the parties is put to the test. And if either relationship starts to erode, the head coach is by definition involved because he is the only party invested in both key relationships.
Further, in professional sports, the organizational dynamic causing managerial departure is accelerated because the head coach isn’t tied down to the team (like the owner) and he cannot defend himself through directly measurable on-field metrics (like the player). To put it another way, if a negative relationship dynamic started to influence on-field results, the head coach will almost always end up directly at odds with either the owner or the players.
Next time, I’ll take a closer look at those dynamics, how they might influence decisions about personnel, and what it might mean for the future of the team.
Footnotes / but doesn’t it matter that these guys are friends?
1. It doesn't count if you have inside info, of course...
The obvious point to add here is that Belichick holds his cards so closely to his chest that it is hard for me to imagine some ESPN reporter learning anything important about his relationships with Kraft or Brady.
2. But aren’t Brady and Kraft buddies?
This is not to dismiss the value, importance, or even existence of a relationship between Brady and Kraft. As far as I know, it is a strong friendship based on mutual respect and admiration. What I’m saying is that in terms of winning helmet football games, this relationship is completely irrelevant. If Brady is upset with Kraft (or vice-versa) they work through Belichick, the head coach, to deal with these concerns.
