hello ladies index - update

Hi all,

In honor of Halloween, I thought I'd update the 'Hello Ladies' index, the only thing I'm truly trying to 'dress up' around these parts here on TOA. (For those unfamiliar with this previous item, please see this link.)

Confused by my opening sentence? Allow me to refer to this passage from my last update of this index, published in this post from July:

'...I am not counting multiple books from the same author in the year-to-date total...'

Make sense? No? Yeah, same with me (1).

Anyway, here are the basic author head counts for my reading thus far in 2017:

January: 4 male authors / 6 female authors
February: 9 / 1
March: 9 / 0
April: 2 / 2
May: 4 / 2
June: 4 / 3
July: 5 / 3
August: 4 / 5
September: 5 / 2

Year-to-date (count): 46 male / 24 female
Year-to-date (adjusted): 34 male / 21 female

So, what to make of these numbers? Let's break it down a little bit...

*On the surface, thirty-four to twenty-one doesn't seem like a terrible result. But perhaps I'm comparing it against the far more unbalanced forty-six to twenty-four starting point.

*Three-fourths of the way into the year, the pace is about one and a half extra books written by male authors per month.

*I'm reading about eight books a month so the monthly ratio works out to four and three quarters against three and a quarter.

*If the wildly off balance February and March tallies were removed, I would be down to twenty-eight against twenty-three in terms of headcount (and perhaps even better on the adjusted tally).

I'm not going to declare these numbers some kind of emergency but I did expect to do a little better after resolving to pay more attention to how I was selecting books in 2017. Maybe I was expecting the management truism of 'what gets measured gets managed' to magically apply to my book selections. Or maybe I thought the books I would find interesting in 2017 would come from shelves more equally stocked to begin with.

I do feel I made some effort this year, no doubt about it, but the results show a little more is required if I want to achieve parity on next year's reading list.

I'll be back sometime in early 2018 with the final tallies and a brief wrap up.

Thanks for reading.

Tim

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. Well, if I MUST explain myself...

I think I added the twist knowing I planned on reading all of George Saunders's work this year. He's written like, what, ten books?

Just for fun, here is an example showing how the same thinking might be used to analyze this blog's 'Hello Ladies' Index:

True On Average (count): 235 posts by male authors / 0 female authors
True On Average (adjusted): 1 male author / 0 female authors

leftovers: maniac magee

In Pachinko, Min Jin Lee offers an insight into the important of having someone to share day-to-day experiences with. And in one Dear Sugar Radio podcast episode, a guest related the difficulty of living with a sense of loneliness within her marriage; the biggest problem for this guest was being unable to share her feelings with the person she shared everything else with- her husband.

Those two ideas were kicking around my head a little bit for this post. Maniac is an orphan who, by the time we readers meet him, has been on the run for the past four years. His sense of loneliness is not immediately obvious but I did notice how few options Maniac has for sharing his thoughts and feelings with the other characters.

Ultimately, I did not work out anything useful to examine this insight further. Maybe next year I'll be better prepared to comment on how, in most of his relationships, Maniac feels the other needs him more so than he does.

reading review: option b, part two

Reading Option B just a couple of years after my mom died gave me an interesting point of view for the book. For today, I thought I would use this point of view to examine some of the book’s ideas.

Below, I take some of the notes I jotted down from Option B and compare them against my own recent experience.

*********

Three "P's" stunt recovery from setbacks: personalization, pervasiveness, and permanence. This is not my fault, this will not last forever, and this does not need to affect all aspects of my life.

TOA: I thought compartmentalization as a response to the ‘pervasiveness’ concept was a very useful short-term approach. In the weeks after my mom died, I went to work, hung out with friends, and just went through my basic routine almost entirely separated from how I was feeling. It was effective in the sense of preserving my ability to get on with needed things.

After some time, I noticed the strategy’s effectiveness wearing off. I was present in my life but not really there. Most of my life’s (few) successes started with fusing the otherwise separated aspects of my knowledge, experience, or understanding together. If I wanted to recover from this setback, I needed to bring my full self with me at all times instead of changing uniforms every time I transitioned from one part of my day to the next.

I’m not sure this is true of everyone but I suspect most people feel better when they are able to be themselves all the time. When you numb the pain, you numb the joy, too.

*********

Bereavement support often pays off in the long-term for companies through better loyalty and a faster return to regular performance.

TOA: This feels about right. My boss treated me very well in the months following my loss and I thought the four months before I got laid off were easily the most productive of my tenure.

I think the real challenge for most companies is learning to think long-term rather than improving their bereavement support.

*********

It is pretty common for people to avoid asking about difficult topics. Often, this comes from poorly executing on good intent. So, don't take it personally if some people want to talk about helmet football the next time you see them.

Since addressing the elephant in the room seems an unnatural skill, practice! Carry extra bags of peanuts around if you must...

TOA: What I noticed as life slowly returned to normal was not how others failed to address the elephant in my room but how often I'd failed to address the elephants in theirs. Why should I expect others to succeed where all I have ever done is fail?

I’m reminded of a quote I recently took down: 'be who you needed when you were younger'.

*********

Many survivors of trauma or those still suffering are willing to talk about their experiences and try to teach others about what they've learned.

Nostalgia is a painful emotion yet many find their moods elevated after experiencing it.

Death sometimes has a funny way of erasing the past. The widowed are rarely asked how they met their deceased spouses, for example.

TOA: I thought these three went together. The expression ‘moving on’ implies a forward-looking mentality but perhaps risks losing sight of the past we wish to hang onto. Perhaps ‘climbing up’ works better, symbolically speaking, because climbing acknowledges the foundations built by what came before.

I’m reminded of how I responded to questions about how I was doing when my mom was sick. I used to tell people I was doing fine. This was not always true but I did believe it was the best answer whenever I said so. In order to conceal my lie, I usually said this with an extra smile and some mustered up good cheer.

The strange thing was, the more I said it, the more I believed it. As I came to believe it, I started to actually feel better. It would be like announcing 'I'm rich!' and suddenly remembering where I left the twenty bucks I'd lost the night before.

After people stopped asking me how I was doing, I made fewer such lies. After my mom died, I also was more open about how I actually felt. The combination meant I said I was feeling better very infrequently (unless it was true). It was strange to miss my small little lies but the less often I said I was feeling better, the less often I actually felt better.

There is probably no way to avoid dealing with reality at some point. But I do think it is OK to occasionally try and convince others you are doing fine. This is perhaps like the nostalgia effect cited above in the way people feel better after acknowledging a painful emotion (even if by lying about it).

*********

People often offer 'to do anything' or 'just talk' but it is often more helpful to simply do or say something to show your understanding. To ask if there is anything possible to do is a tricky question for many suffering to respond to.

TOA: This is the flip side to the above two comments. The ‘do anything’ offer is very generous but from my experience felt like too much to ask of anyone. The thing I needed after my mom died was some help figuring out how to get to and from a wedding I'd basically forgotten about. Were those who offered to do anything able to help? Maybe they were, or not, but I wasn't giving anyone a chance to let me down.

There are probably people in everyone’s life who could offer to ‘do anything’ and get taken up on it. I suspect for most people this is a very, very small circle. I do not remember exactly how it played out for me but I eventually drove my dad's car to the hotel room my brother helped me get for free. I suppose these two fine gentlemen offered to 'do anything' and I responded...

It is probably better to ask altered versions of regular questions. Instead of asking ‘how are you?’, ask ‘how are you doing today?’ just to acknowledge another’s current emotional situation.

*********

To help someone feeling lonely or isolated in a difficult situation, simply acknowledge your inability to know the future but provide assurances of your presence along the entire way.

TOA: There are an endless number of ways to foster connection and I’m sure this is as good as any. However, though this reads well in print I admit it did not work so well on me.

*********

Lacking in self-confidence leads to risk aversion, a focus on flaws, and a general malaise or hesitancy to take new opportunities. Trauma often leads to self-doubt in many areas unrelated to the incident.

TOA: This was definitely the most surprising thing for me. For a long time, I thought phone calls from unknown numbers were hospitals bearing bad news. I remember going on a trip and knowing I was going to miss the flight, not get picked up, get food poisoning, etc. When I lost my job, it took about five months just to start looking for another one because I was convinced I was never going to get hired by anyone worthwhile (I suppose I might be right about this, but still).

*********

Once a situation becomes unchangeable, the remaining option is to change ourselves.

TOA: Clever but useless (editor's note: just like this blog). I’d rather see people give up less easily. But in the question of dealing with loss in the most direct way, I suppose the alternatives are very limited.

*********

Joy is an act of defiance against the negative pull of tragedy. Meaning without joy is still a depressing life.

Happiness is frequency, not intensity, of positive experiences. Always do the small things that bring you joy.

TOA: I like this pair because in hindsight I did not really seek out joy yet understand now how it could have helped. I think I made life harder than it needed to be for about a year and a half as a result.

Joy doesn't have to be complicated. It can be watching soccer, ordering takeout food, or kicking an acorn towards a squirrel. It can be starting a tiny little blog to write about watching soccer, ordering takeout food, or kicking an acorn towards a squirrel.

Forget size or quality when it comes to joy. The more frequent, the better.

*********

Children with four core beliefs tend to bounce back from difficulties. These are a sense of control, the ability to learn from failure, a sense of importance as a human being, and an understanding of their own strengths.

TOA: I sometimes wonder if the line between children and adults is too firmly drawn. A lot of ‘adult learning’ is really just undoing the defense mechanisms and scar tissues concealing the child within.

Each of these 'core beliefs' is vital in recovery, from anything, and the universal truth applies to people of any age dealing with setbacks of any kind.

*********

Writing is a good way to deal with things…

TOA: Thanks for reading today.

i read a thousand years of good prayers so you don't have to

A Thousand Years of Good Prayers by Yiyun Li (July 2017)

The stories in this collection are either set in China or about Chinese-Americans. Each story explores the back-and-forth dynamic of how tradition influences change and change influences tradition. Throughout, Li's characters grapple with these larger forces and try to find ways to reconcile their culture's expectations with the urgent realities of their lives.

The two stories I enjoyed the most were 'Extra' and 'A Thousand Years of Good Prayers'. The last paragraph of 'The Princess of Nebraska' was memorable. Overall, I found the collection very enjoyable and I'm likely to explore more of Li's work.

The idea I liked most in this collection came in a story about a daughter who spoke more freely in English than she did in her native Chinese. For some, learning a new language is a chance at self-expression restricted or repressed by the native tongue. What struck me is how this does not necessarily apply only to spoken languages; the effect could be the same for someone who learns a new skill, develops a new hobby, or joins a new community. In a way, all things develop their own language and any activity is an opportunity to explore greater self-expression.

cash flow

I first started thinking about cash flow (and I suppose, accounting) when I began reading a blog called The Swiss Ramble. The blog is targeted at a very specific niche audience of people interested in world club soccer AND basic accounting. My interest in the former is significant, of course, and I was sort of getting into the latter because my team, Liverpool, were being run into the ground by the (American) financial tactics of their new (American) owners. With bankruptcy looming thanks to excessive debt, I started seeking more information on the matter. The Swiss Ramble explored the finances of soccer clubs in great detail and proved to be just what I needed at the time.

Almost by accident, I learned a little bit about accounting as I read. I was already familiar with the basics (like revenue and cost) and I managed to understand some of the trickier concepts (such as EBITDA) after reading a few posts (1). The most interesting idea to me was cash flow. Cash flow problems explained why massive soccer clubs could generate hundreds of millions of dollars per year in revenue yet stumble over a payment just a fraction of their revenue if they did not have the liquidity required to take out a short-term loan required to cover a cash shortfall.

I understood cash flow in a general sense, of course, in the way anyone who has taken out a loan or needed to pay the rent understands. But I never thought about it from the business angle. I always thought a company's main financial concerns were revenues and costs. A widget costs $10 and the price is $15- if the business sells one widget, the profit is $5. Simple, right?

But the oversimplified example does not take into account the influence of cash flow. A widget reaching the retail shelf costs $10 but this cost is paid before the revenue from the sale is booked. A business sloppy with forecasting might fall shy of the cash requirements for buying raw materials, meeting payroll, or renting space. If the cash runs out before sales become consistent, it is possible to go out of business despite the revenue-cost consideration suggesting a highly profitable model.

I think one reason why the rich do better with their money than the non-rich is because of cash flow. A rich person likely has access to better short-term credit options and thus invests in longer-term assets. These assets return more in the long-term because they are generally locked out of reach for the duration of the investment vehicle. The less well off, on the other hand, might hold more cash in reserve because their confidence in overcoming unanticipated cash flow crises is low and their options for short-term credit to cover such events are limited.

When financial 'wizards' remark on America's low retirement savings rate, I think what they are failing to acknowledge is how the threat of a cash flow crisis impacts personal finance decisions. An IRA or 401k plan often requires the money remain untouched until retirement age (those who withdraw early are penalized). Well, I have thirty to forty years left before (completely) retiring. So, until I'm confident of being able to handle a short-term cash emergency, each dollar invested in a retirement account is an additional dollar I might have to borrow later at high interest rates to address any sudden cash flow requirements. Given the trade-off, I could see why those who are young, struggling to make ends meet, or lack options during a cash flow crisis might choose to avoid retirement accounts entirely until their liquidity improves.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. I-bit-the-what?

EBITDA stands for 'earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization'. When I unpacked the acronym, I had to also learn what 'amortization' meant.

This proved more interesting than logic would dictate. When a soccer team buys a player from a rival club, they are often required to pay a fee to the team's former employer. This is known as a 'transfer fee' and the numbers for the top players get pretty high. If a player moves for 'big money', it is generally when the transfer fee reaches twenty or so million pounds/dollars/euros.

The accounting side writes off the expense over the length of the deal. A player who cost $20 million in transfer fees over a four-year contract is considered a $5 million per year expense over those four years regardless of the payment schedule for the transfer fee. If the fee is paid in an upfront lump sum, the club is out $20 million cash but the accountants would book $5 million over each of the next four years.

the clickbait eclipse

A few weeks ago, there was a great buzz around town for the upcoming 'once-in-a-lifetime' solar eclipse (1). The anticipation was enough to even get my attention! In the buildup to the event, I spent some time reading up on the history of eclipses, researched what to expect on the big day, and sought some basic advice for how to best enjoy the event.

One piece of advice really jumped out at me: don't look at the sun! Or, rather...you might go blind so...DON'T LOOK AT THE SUN! The only way around this fate was to buy Special Eclipse Glasses, a fishy concept if I ever heard of one. It seemed unlikely to me for this to be a scam since the library was giving these out for free (for FREE!). Does the library ever distribute a shoddy product? because there were a lot of news stories about how some of these glasses were, in fact, scams, leading me to assume most of the time these glasses were A-OK.

But on the other hand, SPECIAL ECLIPSE GLASSES?!? Because the sun was somehow going to become brighter when it was partially blocked?

(Scam!)

How did our ancestors ever see an eclipse, then? Surely someone looked first.

(SCAM!)

Was Medusa herself hanging out on the moon, sitting Earth-side?

(Scaaaaaam!)

Maybe I could get away with a 'Presidential' glance...

I had some questions but I thought I had the answers. Just to double check, I opened up Google and did a little more research.

My main question was a simple one: was the sun on eclipse day any worse to look at compared to, say, every other day of my entire life, a life I'd lived free of the knowledge that I was just a quick glance away from permanent blindness? 'No' was my gut reaction. Do baseball outfielders go blind looking up for fly balls?

My logic for this gut reaction was based on my understanding of the 'extreme' cases. On one extreme (as in, every day, ever), I knew the sun was a no-no to look at. But it wasn't going to leave me blind, either. On the other extreme (the four minute block of time during the total eclipse) the sun was perfectly safe to stare at. In between these end points, a transition took the sun from 'do not look!' to 'OK, look!'. Nothing flips so quickly- even a car going from zero to sixty in a commercial hits every number in between- so I figured a 'partial eclipse' fell somewhere in the middle of a continuum.

My early search efforts failed to confirm my instincts. Each new article was as grim as the last: look up = go blind. It struck me as ridiculous, of course, and I forged on, seeking reassurance from science (or faith, if necessary) to tell me only what I wanted to hear before I convinced myself to make what could turn out to be My One Last Look at the sun giving life to this great, green, and slowly heating planet (2).

Finally, I found the article I was looking for. Looking at the sun during the eclipse, it stated, was in no way any different from looking at it sans lunar obstruction. The reason many expressed fears about blindness, this article suggested, was because on eclipse days people were tempted to look at the sun. All the sensational articles I had seen were only helpful reminders for those who would otherwise stare at the sun all day in a vain attempt to see the eclipse.

Interesting explanation. I suppose it could even be true. Sometimes, the entire internet conspires to deliver a consistent message intended to help the commoner, you know?

Call me cynical, though, because I actually have another reason explaining the existence of all these articles. Let's state it as an axiom:

'Articles suggesting a cause for blindness get more clicks than those making no remark on the future of your eyesight.'

Right?

This whole thing reminds me of a story I read when I was a kid about an old Hungarian song called 'Gloomy Sunday'. Apparently, listening to the song was implicated as a cause for a number of suicides during the time. The excitement generated about the 'suicide song' was enough to convince many people to listen it. Artists like Billie Holliday produced cover versions of the song. But in due time, the links to suicide were proven spurious at best and the buzz around the song faded from memory (3).

Clickbait is a far older phenomenon than the internet. But no doubt about it, the concept is helped along (and perhaps has achieved immortality) by the way most use The Good Old Interwebs. With the magic of hyperlinks , a far more interesting article is always just a click of the mouse away! (insert 3)

But is this so bad? Most articles do not make claims as ridiculous as 'Gloomy Sunday' (click this link to learn how to levitate!) Surely, there is some value to all this content out there- especially if some people had their eyesight saved by reading those same articles I complained about at the top. In this case, perhaps my minor inconvenience is a small price to pay.

And yet, I do wonder what the cost of all this clickbait is. I didn't know right away but kept my mind working on it. If the cost isn't evident, after all, it's probably hidden. As I stared at the sun during the eclipse, I suddenly realized what one cost was: whatever articles the clickbait kept me from reading. Like the way the moon becomes more interesting during an eclipse merely because of what it blocks, clickbait captures my attention only because of all the useful links I've clicked on in the past.

Each time I end up reading some silly little article or watching some pointless video, I'm also prevented from reading a life-affirming piece. These energy-creating links are out there, somewhere, and I want to find them. But just like anyone else, when the new exciting thing floats by I find it difficult to ignore. What's bright always seems to generate light, I suppose, even though I know deep down a reflection usually creates the same effect.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

0. Sunday, gloomy Sunday...

Actually, that's not how the song goes.

Here is the Wikipedia entry about the song.

1. Well, for some lifetimes...

The next one is in 2024.

2. Speaking of global warming...

Is it a logical inconsistency to see climate change deniers looking up at the perfectly predicted solar eclipse? It seems like it (though when I think about it 'logically', I suspect it is probably not).

3. Spurious At Best?

This would be a great name for something.

Not this blog, though.

in economics, this is called an 'arbitrage opportunity'

HMart (the Asian grocery store I tend to ridicule from time to time) sells Calpico, a Japanese soft drink, in two locations. One is in the main store and customers have to go through the checkout lanes. Those drinks cost $2.50.

About fifteen feet away is the start of the food court. If you choose to purchase a drink directly from one of those vendors, the cost for the exact same drink is $3.00.

I wonder if the sushi vendor buys Calpico wholesale from the main store.

leftovers: december 2016 reading review, part 4- sports edition

If it turns out my descriptions do not match any actual books, I promise to fix my error. I'll do so by executing a strategy a former high school classmate once came up with.

This strategy was shared with me after we took a standardized test in high school. My classmate revealed to me that his essay response analyzed a book whose title, author, and subject he made up on the spot. After laughing about the absurdity of the idea, I asked him what his plans were for the rest of the day.

He thought for a moment.

'I guess I have to go home and write the book I just wrote about.'

reading review: option b

Option B by Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant (August 2017)

I cited how much I was looking forward to reading this book in my August newsletter. It is hard to say for sure, though, exactly what I was looking forward to. Option B is initially about loss and grief. Eventually, it gets into moving on from loss and grief. Throughout, a number of academic studies are cited.

These are not exciting topics (1). And yet, I found the book worth the wait. Once I got going, it took me about a day of traveling to finish it (2).

I must acknowledge my interest in this book came from two personal factors. First, my mom died a couple of years ago (editor's note: breaking news for longtime readers). Second, I’m very interested in organizational and team building dynamics (editor's note: see editor's note, above). Indirectly, Option B covered both.

So, although I think most readers will get a lot from this book, I suggest to those wavering to keep my situation in mind before responding to my full recommendation.

One up: Option B is true to a couple of its own insights. At one point, the authors note that as grief does not have any correct methods, those championing a particular approach must be ignored. This book offers plenty of wisdom and insight without descending into a how-to guide for the grieving.

They also note how people in pain need support for their suffering. They go on to identify confirming feelings as a key step in recovery. I thought the book itself did an excellent job of both (with many of Sandberg’s personal stories about her experiences after her husband’s sudden death serving as key examples for grieving readers).

One down: This book covered a lot of ground. I think the result was inevitable given the co-author concept because each author will want the work to highlight their specific strengths or expertise. The many roles each author plays in life also contributed as they framed various aspects of this book through their roles as a parent, spouse, child, friend, and colleague.

Though I thought the book overall was excellent and met my high expectations, I suspect the result of a more focused follow-up effort would be significant. There was a lot left uncovered, I think, and this topic is as universally appealing as any book could be about.

Just saying: One of the better quotes from this book is “when life hands someone lemons, don't talk about your cousin who died of lemons”. I believe it was written on a card someone sent to Sandberg (though I admit I am not entirely sure I recall this correctly).

When my mom died of…er, lemons… a couple of years ago, I was surprised to learn about all those around me whose mothers also died of lemons (3). I did not react negatively to these stories (though I understand some in my position have). I mostly felt bad about being unable to help them with their ongoing suffering. I resolved to remember for the future: if someone’s mother died of lemons, don’t immediately talk about my mom's battle against lemons.

I started volunteering with hospice just a few months later. In theory, this was a way for me to talk about lemons so I would not be tempted to do so in the future when someone else’s mother died. But in practice, I did need to exercise the same caution. In some cases, I thought it was appropriate to share the full story of how I came to the hospice and why I wanted to volunteer. In others, I suspected I was in ‘lemons’ territory and opted to omit certain details in explaining how I came to the hospice.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. This assertion, I'm sure, was recently proven in an academic study.

The confidence interval was at least 95%, I'm told.

2. Who says airline delays are a bad thing?

To be fair, my flight was delayed and the extra time helped, but still, a day!

3. Just in case anyone is confused...

...it's Lemons Awareness Month.

i read foundation so you don't have to

Foundation by Isaac Asimov (July 2017)

First published in 1951, this is the first of a science fiction trilogy. It is set in a world dependent on the field of 'psychohistory', a type of mathematics used by a central character to predict the future for all of humankind.

This sounds lovely in concept but of course there is a catch. In the world of Foundation, the catch is a scale problem: the predictions are based on mass action and therefore useless at the individual level. A lot of people I know could benefit from this understanding, I suppose, but that's another matter.

I see no sense in offering my recommendation. A science fiction fan surely has read this book (and the other two in the trilogy, and the two prequels later added to the series, and the two sequels, and maybe written some fan fiction of their own).

If you like plots and reading about the larger forces of history, warfare, and politics, I bet you've already read this, too. For what it's worth, I enjoyed Foundation enough to finish it but I'm not going any further into the series.

One amusing side note. In The Mother of all Questions, Rebecca Solnit references 'The Bechdel Test'. This measure notes whether a work of fiction features at least one scene where two female characters talk about something other than a man (1).

I imagine if Foundation were put to the test, something in the universe would break (perhaps my computer, bought in 2006 yet still going strong as I write this sentence!). I can only recall one female character in the whole book (who resembled more of a wet blanket than a sentient being) and I do not recall her talking into a reflective surface at any point in the novel.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. TOA, the haven of careful readers...

Apparently, Virginia Woolf made reference to the broader idea in her essay 'A Room of One's Own'. I read the essay once. It was good.

I missed the reference, though. Whoops...

leftovers: two pods and a lie

To answer the question I posed at the top of this post: #3 is the fake one. I heard the episode weeks after I wrote about payday lending in the context of Hillbilly Elegy.

The process of looking up these shows made me think about the value of podcast transcripts. EconTalk appears to have an extensive archive of podcast transcripts while 99% Invisible does not. I'm not sure why any podcast doesn't have transcripts. Is there a single good reason?

To me, it seems like the podcasts with search-friendly texts of their shows will have an advantage in the future. Google proved search is the starting point for most internet sessions. Things will change over time, of course, but I suspect ensuring content is 'search friendly' will prove a lucrative rule of thumb for many years to come.

Nowhere is this reality more apparent than when I see people get frustrated over PDFs lacking search capability. So with these thoughts in mind, one of my goals as a podcast producer would be to get each episode into transcript form. (1)

Transcripts would also expand a podcast's audience by reaching a time-constrained listener. I remember how a new boss at work once wanted everyone to listen to a weekly TED Talk. This in itself was not a huge issue for me. But sometimes, the episode of the week was over thirty minutes long. Finding the transcripts in these cases were a huge boost for me. Instead of listening to some over-hyped speaker drone on and on for half an hour, I could just read the speech in five minutes.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

0. Proof, or not?

For those interested, here is a link to the EconTalk podcast episode. The section I cite comes at the 56:19 mark. At the bottom of the page is also a transcript of the podcast.

Here is a link to the 99% Invisible episode.

I could not find the episode featuring Lombardi's cash flow comments. However, here is a snippet of a 2010 NFL.com article where he explains a similar idea:

In any contract when a team guarantees future money in the form of skill (performance) and injury, they're required by league rules to fund the amount in an NFL escrow account at that time. Most teams with cash flow problems dance around this issue by using dated bonuses and only designate either a skill or injury guarantee -- but never both. That way a team can name a date in the future and keep the money on hand as opposed to putting it in an account. Remember, like most businesses, most NFL teams rely on cash flow.

That's why there's some confusion over the amount of the actual guarantee in D'Brickashaw Ferguson's new deal. The Jets want to give the money to Ferguson, but they cannot in the form of a large signing bonus -- which would hurt their cash flow -- so they use this creative measure.

1. On the other hand...

The best argument for not bothering with transcripts is to assume a company or product will emerge with the capability of quickly transcribing voice to text. This is not unreasonable. People invent tools all the time to solve previously 'unsolvable' problems (and there are already many companies offering basic versions of this service).

On a side note, I think the 'wait for technology' approach is the unofficial strategy against global warming. It sure as shit isn't "make sacrifices today for the benefit of the future".

if shame happens between people, it must heal between people

Brene Brown shares an intriguing thought in The Gifts of Imperfection: if shame happens between people, it must heal between people.

It is the nature of shame to feed on lies, secrets, and silence. If a person is isolated with their shame, it spirals out of control. The best way to fight shame is to share the story with the right person who will listen without judgment.

This raises the question of how to identify the right person. It is, unfortunately, not as easy as listing off names of friends or family. It might not even be the best idea to hire an expensive professional! Brown provides a good place to start by recommending the types of people to avoid. Here are a few examples I noted from her ‘avoid’ list:

Avoid anyone who…

…feels shame with you.
…shows sympathy rather than empathy.
…needs you to represent an ideal of strength/worth.
…responds to discomfort by blaming (you or someone else).
…tries to fix everything.
…will immediately share a story about what happened to them.

Is it possible to learn how to become a person others will share with? I suppose one approach is to avoid doing the things on the above list. Theoretically, avoiding those behaviors will leave you with an appropriate set of listening tactics to work with.

Brown points out a few other truths worth keeping in mind here. Feelings of anxiety, calm, or courage are contagious. Sharing these with others will often be met with a reciprocal response. Demonstrate calm rather than anxiety and share stories of courage to embolden others (1).

Footnotes / imagined complaints

0. Sometimes, I come up with clever titles…

Not this time, though. Can’t win ‘em all, kids. I'll settle for a rich reference or two.

1. I’m not a doctor, doc, but here’s my OPINION…

If you suspect someone’s shame is contributing to depression, it is past the point of discussion over coffee or drinks. If someone came to you with a broken leg, would you tell them to cheer up or would you drive them to the hospital? Depression is a medical condition and you must encourage them to get professional help right away.

A rule of thumb for depression is to look for playfulness. Play is the opposite of depression and the capacity for it separates a down mood from an outright medical issue.

in fact, it comes out to the classic 5-12-13 right triangle shape

I was wandering about Inman Square one day when I realized something: Inman Square is actually shaped like a triangle.

Hampshire + Cambridge + Prospect = Inman Triangle.

Just what is the obsession of calling all these little places around here 'squares'? Central Square is a straight line, Porter Square is a parking lot, and it seems like anything within a mile of MIT is Kendall Square. Did anyone living in Cambridge ever take a geometry class?

Footnotes / imagined complaints

0. A sad little postscript regarding the Tide of Industry...

While I'm ranting about Inman Square, I'm setting the over/under for 'Inman Pharmacy' becoming 'CVS' at July 2019.

Any takers?

leftovers: casual wednesday

Finding similarities in unrelated things is almost always the first step toward a good idea. For most companies, Tuesday and Friday are basically the same day (1). If a good idea on Friday is a bad idea the rest of the week, there should be a reason. An office inviting clients onsite during the first half of a week might benefit from a 'casual Friday' concept.

But for most others?

The variable dress code is an extra line in the employee handbook. I've never heard about a company going into the red because of dress-code induced performance decline. Simplifying the employee handbook does not result in obvious immediate impacts, of course, but I suspect over time the consistent commitment to encouraging good ideas will pay off.

At the very least, having one less thing to think about will give everyone time to worry about something new. Anyone up for a lunch-and-learn about maintaining good posture while seated at a desk?

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. Well, what about 'Hump Day'?

It could be, though, that the daily experience for employees differs significantly even if each day of the week is, from the company's point of view, more or less the same. For most people, the experience of Tuesday and Friday differ significantly enough to see 'Casual Friday' as logical ('logical').

I'm reminded here of how my perception of the workweek changed as my first job evolved. In my first year of work, I got the most done on Monday. This was because I was new and needed help. I found Monday was always the best day to get others to chip in with their knowledge or advice.

As I increasingly defined my role and took a more autonomous approach, Monday became the least productive day. The reason was the same but the positions were reversed: people were now asking me for help and I spent a lot of my Mondays responding to these requests. Eventually, Friday became my most productive day of the week.

reading review: the need for roots

The Need For Roots by Simone Weil (July 2017)

Weil’s book, published posthumously in 1949, is her report on how to regenerate France after the end of World War II. Most of her ideas describe the roles of various institutions in a thriving post-war nation. She also digs into how each person has basic duties toward his or her community and describes how a renewed emphasis on these obligations will prove vital in overcoming the problems resulting from a focus on declaring and protecting individual rights.

Weil devotes the early portion to exploring various human needs. For her, the concept of a ‘Golden Mean’ was too often misapplied to describe needs. There is not a balance but a duality: first one need is met, then the other. After rest is activity, before work comes play, and hunger always interchanges with satiety.

She applies this duality concept to societies as she did to individuals. A ruler bound to no oversight will ruin a nation because obedience is the balancing need for initiative. The society unable to fill newly vacated lower-class roles is unable to honestly provide opportunity for people to ‘work their way up’.

After Weil defines her ideas about human needs, she explains how institutions must exist to serve these needs. She saw the failure to teach religion in schools as a major failure given religion's great influence over time on human thought, activity, and culture. At the minimum, she thought important texts from major religions should be taught the way literature classes teach Shakespeare.

Weil considered it vital for public institutions to engage their citizens throughout the year. Those who only participate in civic life on election day are prone to view some or all public institutions with resentment.

The idea I liked best was about finding truth within a religion’s framework. If a believer wishes to probe a religion’s spirit of truth, it requires a preparedness to abandon the faith if the discovered truth compels a new spiritual commitment. Though this point was delivered in the context of religion, I know it applies to many other situations as well.

One up: Weil’s writing contained many insights or commentaries regarding various societal activities. I’m going to better organize these for an upcoming short post.

As a preview, here is one such commentary for today: a punishment is effective to the extent it wipes out the stigma of the crime.

One down: Weil points out the responsibility authors have to take care with their words. She compares a careless writer to a train operator who crashes despite ‘good intentions’. Though malice is lacking, an author who forgets the truth or simply wastes a reader’s time with empty fluff should be subject to some consequences.

Longtime readers may ponder here- is Weil's commentary about 'empty fluff' taking impressive aim at TOA some seventy years ahead of my first post? Her writing is certainly cited as example of a 20th century writer warning 21st century readers...

I'll defend myself here by pointing to another insight about punishment. For Weil, a person’s status should influence the punishment and only the highest-status offenders should be subject to society’s harshest punishments. I suppose applying this criteria makes any (hypothetical) TOA indiscretions subject to only the slightest rap on wrist…

Just saying: Society has done a great deal to identify man’s rights but accomplished less in the realm of defining man’s obligations. Though rights are important, they allow for justification of good or bad deeds.

Obligations, on the other hand, tend to almost always produce good deeds.

i read the four agreements so you don't have to

The Four Agreements by don Miguel Ruiz (June 2017)

This book is about the belief systems people use to limit themselves and fall short of reaching their potential. Often, the result is a life lacking in joy, freedom, or love. Ruiz draws on Toltec influences to lay out the four agreements he requires of anyone trying to reverse these belief systems. The book's aim is to point the way for those struggling to be themselves in a modern world whose pressures work against keeping these four agreements.

The four agreements are straightforward:

1) Be impeccable with your word
2) Don't take anything personally
3) Don't make assumptions
4) Always do your best

Of the four, I think the third one is the most important. In fact, in some ways the third agreement is a prerequisite for the other three. When I reflected on this list, it occurred to me how successfully living by the other three agreements requires a basic refusal to make assumptions.

People who do not make assumptions cannot help but be impeccable with their word. They do not fear asking for clarification and speak based on what they know is true.

Those who take things personally are assuming another's intentions. It is not enough to be hurt once. By assuming they were targeted, these people continue to suffer through an abusive inner dialogue.

Finally, failing to do your best is acceptable under the assumptions imposed by outside metrics. Instead of challenging from within and striving to reach your own potential, you settle for simply pleasing others and filling the roles, positions, or demands they have outlined for you.

Of course, my thought does not mean the third agreement is the one to follow first. It does not elevate the third agreement above the others. It is merely the one linking the others more effectively than any of its counterparts.

Considered together, the four agreements form a blueprint for a pattern of self-transformation. Those who agree to these principles will no longer respond to the rewards-and-punishments structure imposed on many from a young age. Instead of living a domesticated life aimed at pleasing those in their families, organizations, or societies, those who accept the four agreements will learn to live freely and truthfully to the demands placed on them from within.

the top idea in my mind

In this essay, Paul Graham explores the phenomenon of how one idea tends to stick in the mind whenever he allows his thoughts to drift freely. I thought this was an interesting way to explain a fairly mundane experience. It got me thinking about the number of different topics I have had become 'the top idea in the mind' over the past few years (1).

I've thought quite a bit about agency and how people exert or limit influence over their own lives. Local, national, and worldwide events have prompted thinking about openness, inclusion, and community in ways I never bothered to consider when I was a student. I've spent way too much time thinking about how to get the most out of my exercise and nutrition routines. But of all the things I've considered during my twenties, the clear number one idea, the one returning to the top of my mind over and over again, has involved mulling over the varying comfort levels people have with ideas and with people.

At first, I represented it as a duality. A person could be more comfortable with ideas or more comfortable with people. One or the other, nice and easy. A person comfortable with both people and ideas seemed pretty unlikely given how rarely I'd encountered anyone exhibiting both qualities so far in my life.

Thinking back on my experiences, I think my initial reaction makes sense. The K-12 school years are designed to group students based on their comfort with ideas. I always did well on tests and thus ended up with classmates who were top academic performers as well. Put another way, someone uncomfortable with ideas was highly unlikely to become my 'peer' no matter how comfortable they were dealing with people.

The college admissions process was yet another opportunity to further limit my peers to those comfortable with ideas with no significant consideration given to how they dealt with people. By the time I graduated, I'd spent around a decade and a half surrounded by people who valued ideas first and dealt with everything else later. It was no wonder, I suppose, for me to think about this ideas-people concept as a duality for most of my twenties.

It took some time but, slowly, my construct eroded. Of late, I've started to see these as two separate skills. The first time I thought deeply about this came just a couple of years ago. When my mom was becoming sicker, she spent a few weeks going in and out of the hospital. Over the course of these many hospital trips, she was visited by a number of doctors who were meeting her for the first time. I started to notice during these interactions how some doctors were better at expressing themselves than others. This is traditionally referred to as 'bedside manner' and the variance in 'bedside manner'  among these doctors was very noticeable whenever we received a new visitor.

I really noticed this as a skill when the 'wooden' doctors dropped by. It was as if these doctors had once read a hypothetical textbook- How To Interact With Patients and Their Families, Volume 1- and memorized each step perfectly. They told us what was going on and answered our questions honestly. But I never felt like these conversations were natural. During these exchanges, there was something formulaic about how these doctors spoke and responded to us. To put it another way, if the conversation was scheduled to end after fifteen minutes, the conversation would take exactly fifteen minutes.

Who would have written this hypothetical book? Why, the doctors naturally skilled in 'bedside manner', I suspect. These doctors were comfortable visiting with us and being present with our dread, anxiety, and uncertainty. I never felt rushed speaking with them and they were perfectly fine with a conversation ending after (or ahead) of schedule (2).

Put another way, I saw first-hand through these doctors how developing a comfort level with other people was a skill to work on. I suspected it was no different than developing a comfort level with ideas. In either case, there were probably a few 'naturals' out there. The rest of us would need to buckle down, hit the books, and try to learn from experience whenever we messed up.

I suspect most people around my age have a lot to work on in terms of developing their comfort level with other people. The (probably overstated) challenges posed by new technology and 'screen time' are not making this challenge any easier. And maybe, looking back, it would have helped me a little bit if school focused a little more on cultivating these 'people skills'.

But once a person reaches a certain age, it is time to stop worrying about the shortcomings of the past and start taking responsibility for filling in the gaps. I'm not sure when this exact point is, of course, but I'm more than happy to just say 'during your twenties' and leave it there.

The best reason to develop this comfort level with others whenever (and as soon as) possible is the indispensable role this skill plays in convincing others to amend or abandon harmful ideas. Those who cannot relate or are uncomfortable around others will see their well-intended efforts to make things better perceived as jockeying for the upper hand. Given how much negative influence certain powerful ideas are having today, developing a sense of empathy and learning how to understand others is perhaps the only skill important enough to always find a way to work on.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. The tricky bit regarding writing about other posts or articles is that, usually, the thing I write about is far more interesting than the result I generate...

Graham's essay also explored the consequences of having the wrong idea as the 'one top idea' at any given point. If the wrong idea is at the top, all the mind's drifting and subconscious processing goes to cultivating the wrong idea. The value of thinking in the shower is lost if all the thought is given to the wrong idea.

I think most people have one top idea in their mind at any given time. That's the idea their thoughts will drift toward when they're allowed to drift freely. And this idea will thus tend to get all the benefit of that type of thinking, while others are starved of it. Which means it's a disaster to let the wrong idea become the top one in your mind.

What made this clear to me was having an idea I didn't want as the top one in my mind for two long stretches.

2. What about the doctors who had no bedside manner?

There was one or two but I don't think this fact is relevant to the post. I'm sure these fine servants of Boston's top hospitals are in the library as we speak, reading up and taking notes out of How To Interact With Patients and Their Families, Volume 1.

Look out for volume two when it hits the bookshelves in time for the holidays!

tales of two cities, vol 4: july '16 - aug '16

Good morning,

Q: ?

A: Part one...

A: Part two...

A: Part three...

And part nonsense...

Good luck.

Tim

07/26/2016
Harvard Square at Mass Ave/ Dunster (7:29 pm)
Seaport Hotel (8:28 pm)

Hubway's fine (as in penalty, not good) system presents the occasional interesting case study. On this night, absent-minded like a first-time tourist rider, I zoom right past the thirty minute cutoff mark and accrue a one dollar and fifty cent overuse charge. When I realize this, I'm ticked off.

But I do a little extra thinking. Since I've already paid for the extra time, why not just take the timer right to the limit?

I'm not entirely sure if the next fine kicks in at the hour mark. It does seem like a logical number, though, so I wind my way lazily toward the waterfront area until the clock hits the fifty-ninth minute. The maxed out use of my penalty-time is strangely satisfying when compared to those instances where I went just seconds over the allotted rental period.

08/03/2016
Copley Square - Dartmouth St at Boylston St (1:14 pm)
Lesley University (1:42 pm)

Porter Square Station (2:25 pm)
Cambridge Main Library at Broadway / Trowbridge St (2:37 pm)

The biggest question after receiving my first job offer in 2010 was the commute. I was living at home back then. The trip would require a train out of Norwood into Boston, a short walk through downtown to the bus stop, and a ride north to Woburn on a highway express bus. The total commitment was just under two hours.

It seems ridiculous in hindsight but the options back then were limited. Let me tell you kids, there were literally no jobs for college graduates in 2010. At the time of the job offer, I had interviewed and been rejected for roles based in DC and Chicago. The company known today as Wayfair had already moved on from me. I was under consideration for opportunities based in San Francisco and Virginia but both were in the early stages and held no guarantees. Technically, there was no pressing need to take the first job offered. But once I noted the problems my fellow graduates were having finding work, I decided to consider the role despite the commute.

I tested the trip one day before putting pen to paper on an at-will 'contract'. I rode into town on the train, got out on foot, and promptly got lost. When I finally arrived at the bus stop, I had missed my ride. The next bus was in five and a half hours.

I did the only logical thing. I rode the red line north to Porter Square and had lunch at Sapporo Ramen. After thinking things over, I took the job. I missed the bus again on my first day (but it took them five and a half years to sack me for it).

On this particular day, I wake up with another job offer to consider. Like my last offer, I've been unemployed for a few months. And again like my first job, this position is not a role I explicitly applied for. Still, there were good reasons to take it after a positive interview process.

I was initially informed of the offer while waiting in a DC airport. I'm on my way home from a visit to a few friends and the occasion has left me in a somewhat more reflective mood than usual. One of the group has recently quit working after his wife found and accepted a good opportunity in DC. Their decision to move has impacted day-to-day life for them and dictated vacation plans for the rest of us. Another friend visiting is considering a top graduate program after a successful multi-year stint in his first job. He will soon be engaged, his wife-to-be someone he met at the same job.

It is almost six years to the day I started my first job and I'm finally understanding the outsize importance work takes on in many lives. I return to Sapporo Ramen once more to consider the offer (and establish a lovely 'job offer' tradition). The longer list of criteria and deeper thought I put into my decision reflects my own growing acknowledgment of how important work can be.

But work, too, seems less important than ever. For each instance of work's positive influence in life's major decisions, there is an equal case of how the wrong opportunity restricts or damages our truest selves. Rather than allowing work to guide growth and supplement the life we wish to lead, we instead contort ourselves to fit the mold of the job description. And unlike this time six years ago, I no longer assume I'll work until I reach a commonly recognized 'retirement age'. The pressure I feel isn't to work; the pressure is to get it right.

Of course, perhaps the most universal truth about work is that we spend far too much time talking and thinking about it. I'll summarize the process as succinctly as possible.

Do I need the money? No.

Are there likely better fits for me out there? Yes.

If an unemployed person turns down a job offer, does this mean the transition has been made into retirement?

08/17/2016
Conway Park - Somerville Avenue (3:21 pm)
Danehy Park (3:36 pm)

Danehy Park (6:37 pm)
Davis Square (6:49 pm)

Powder House Circle - Nathan Tufts Park (9:26 pm)
Inman Square at Vellucci Plaza / Hampshire St (9:45 pm)

Cambridge Main Library at Broadway / Trowbridge St (10:00 pm)
Charles St at Beacon St (10:28 pm)

Riding a bike inevitably keeps my eyes close to ground level. Look any higher than four feet or so above the road and the risks of hitting potholes or drifting out of the bike lane increase. As a result, I spend an awfully high percentage of the time looking directly at the ground on my bike trips.

It comes as a surprise in hindsight, then, that I do not find anything on the ground until about a year into my membership. In this case, I almost run over a wallet on the way to my volunteer shift. I do not have access to the computer equipment needed to track this person down. My only option is to simply show up at the address listed on the driver's license in the wallet.

After meeting a friend for dinner and informing him of my wallet discovery (I'm a fascinating dinner companion, no doubt), I get on a bike and ride over. The address is located almost perfectly between two of my preferred docks at Inman Square and the Cambridge Library. When I knock on the door, a man about my age comes out. He is overjoyed but, being high, does not have much capacity for any further lifts in mood. Do I want to get high? I do not.

I text my friend- 'success!'- and make my way home. My text does not get a response.

I've known this friend for a few years. We used to work together and often rode the same bus home after work. One day, he looked really sick. I chatted with him briefly and bid him a good night. As he got off the bus, I fully expected him to call out sick the next day.

Well, I was half-right. He did call out sick but did so from the ICU. Apparently, his condition became worse after he left the bus and an ambulance was called. The heart problem they discovered could possibly have killed him the same night had he not gotten in touch with the paramedics.

I organized a couple of visits with a few of our colleagues on the team while he was hospitalized. I also went to see him on my own a couple of times a week. Eventually, he was discharged with a long list of new routines and dietary restrictions. A couple of years later, he would write a powerful recommendation letter for my hospice volunteering role testifying to my impact on him as a visitor and supportive presence during his hospitalization.

The way work impacts life is hard to understand. The complexity makes me wonder why I bother thinking so much about it. Perhaps thinking about how we do something is more important than what we do.

08/22/2016
Back Bay / South End Station (1:19 am)
Charles Circle - Charles St. at Cambridge St. (1:31 am)

The last Amtrak train out of New York on a Sunday night is scheduled for a nine PM departure. It has become a bit of a tradition for me to wrap up trips to the Big Apple with a seat on this train. The ticket is the cheapest available (usually by far) and the late departure time gives me a nice excuse to take in a lot of the city on a lazy Sunday.

The other side of the coin, though, is a basic law of operations: over time, errors accumulate. Inevitably, this means the last train of the day is impacted. Any hope of returning to Boston in time to catch the 'T' is usually lost as the familiar 'DELAYED' note appears on the departure board at the stuffy and crowded Penn Station terminal.

Luckily, Hubway never closes. It is, without question, the best way to get home after midnight. This night's (morning's?) train is only delayed by fifteen minutes but the setback is enough to make Hubway my only option. No problem.

I don't know what people did before Hubway. I guess they just called cabs? I emerge from the crowd of complaining Uber customers to unlock a bike and make my way home.

my tv sucks, except in june...que mes es?

Going with antenna TV (parrrrty like it's 1995!) means I miss out on almost everything TV has to offer. No problem, really, when all TV seems to offer is information about car deals. Did you know Toyota is having a clearance?

But when interesting sporting events do come on 'free TV' I tend to take note. This makes June a big month for me and my antenna. The big event is the Champions League Final on network FOX (did I mention I like soccer? No? Breaking: I like soccer) and the NBA Finals are also on ABC.

To top it all, the Mexican channel, Univision, shows most of the North American World Cup Qualifiers. For some reason, I always enjoy the Spanish commentary.

Perhaps the Spanish language improvement is seen most during the commercial breaks. Though I have a basic understanding of the plots, I am never possessed by the urge to buy something, RIGHT NOW, that sometimes is the case when I watch English-language TV.

leftovers: to have or to be

This book is a 'big ideas' kind of thing. When I read such books, I wonder what the author expects the reader to do with the information. Did Fromm expect people to read this book and respond by immediately changing the world to meet his specifications? Probably a fifty-fifty shot, eh?

'Big ideas' books like this one point to mountains worth climbing yet offer little in the way of planning the ascent. I'm sure such work frustrates certain types of readers. I'm getting a little sick of these books, quite frankly, and I've read fewer such works of late.

There are those who like to talk of what is and those who like to talk of how it should be. What's the point of buying an engagement ring before the first date?

reading review: the gifts of imperfection

The Gifts of Imperfection by Brene Brown (August 2017)

Early in The Gifts of Imperfection, author and shame researcher Brene Brown points out how difficult it is to ignore a once-spotted pattern. This made perfect sense to me. I read her more widely-known book, Daring Greatly, a couple of years ago and noted a hard to ignore pattern myself: this author writes pretty well. Since her topic is one I’d never given a great deal of thought, it was a no-brainer to one day return to her work. (I hope to read a few of her books over the coming year.)

Much of this one draws on Brown’s research into resilience. A ‘shame resilient’ individual is better prepared to recover from small setbacks and serve as an ally for others struggling with shame. In the same way parents struggle to give a child what they lack, a friend burdened with shame will find it difficult to help another through the same feelings.

A vital ingredient for cultivating shame resilience is the embrace of imperfection. This is an ongoing process requiring courage, compassion, and connection with others. The very nature of this process-oriented mentality places it in opposition to the goal-driven nature of perfectionism.

For Brown, perfectionism is the first enemy of resilience. Because no one is perfect, striving towards this end invites a destructive form of circular logic and is in a way a sign of addiction.

Even those careful with their ‘very high standards’ fall victim to some of perfectionism’s temptations. The critical one is comparison, often a result of conformity, competition, or standardization. In measuring self-worth against ever-changing external ideals, a person is likely to always feel insufficient and their ability to cultivate shame resilience is harmed.

One up: In many cases, we already know what needs to be done. Rather than learn more about the right thing, we need direction or help in removing the obstacles preventing us from doing what we know must be done.

There is no better reflection of this reality than our historically high levels of medication, obesity, and indebtedness occurring despite society possessing more knowledge about these topics than at any point in human history. Until we learn to talk about these things in the open without judgment or comparison, however, the status quo is likely to hold.

One down: It is disheartening to consider how much commitment is required to become authentic. Those used to a different person will be startled if someone they 'know well' suddenly changes. In some cases, the suddenly authentic person is no longer liked by peers, colleagues, or even friends.

These effects are reflected in society’s generic gender roles. Men who are not prioritizing work/status, controlling women, or stoic emotionally will always face scrutiny from the unthinking majority. Women who are not thin, nice/quiet, or modest are often subject to the same scrutiny.

Just saying: Brown observes how numbing negative emotions also numbs positive ones. This comment was an eye-opener for me. When it comes to numbing emotions, there is no such thing as selectivity.

This is seen whenever moments of joy trigger fear of loss. Those who suffer in this way must work to transform vulnerability into gratitude. Similarly, those who diminish anticipation make the event less joyful when it happens. It also makes it more difficult for these people to get support from friends if there is no awareness of how let down they are.

i read the undoing project so you don't have to

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis (March 2017)

The Undoing Project is Michael Lewis's newest release. The author of two of my favorite books, Lewis guides readers through the careers of Israeli psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1). Though much space is devoted to describing the formation and application of their many ground-breaking ideas, for me the attention Lewis gives to their friendship and how it was impacted by their desire to produce great work was the best part of the book.

I've written a little bit about this book and I suspect I will revisit it again in the near future. So, to minimize potential repetition of ideas, I'll dust off a method I employed for Tim Harford's Messy and run down a quick top-ten of my favorite thoughts from the work. (2)

In no particular order:

1) Confidence about uncertain things is a sure sign of fraudulence.

2) Big decisions tend to be influenced by circumstance more so than little ones. Thus, the kind of professional one is might be more revealing about a person's character than the profession itself.

3) In real life, people show their preference for 'the sure thing' by opting to do nothing. Nothing is surer than the status quo.

4) Reforms create winners and losers. To get losers to accept change, understanding the source of resistance and addressing it is a better strategy than bullying or arguing.

5) Those who leap to causal explanations for any discrepancy from expectation will fail to see sampling variation in action.

6) A prediction is a judgment incorporating uncertainty.

7) People respond to the way probabilities are framed much in the same way they respond to the probabilities themselves. Patients, for example, opted for surgery much more frequently when told it had a 90% chance of survival instead of a 10% chance of death.

8) Doctors are challenged to balance the individual patient's needs with the aggregate. One person will benefit from antibiotics but any resulting strains resistant to treatment will hurt the population.

9) Inability to waste minutes leads to wasted hours.

10) Revisionist history revolves around changing the unusual. Many speculate on how history would differ if Hitler became an artist; very few consider what would change if he were born a girl.

And a special bonus for you, reader- here is a link to a cartoon skewering the concept of 'psychologists studying psychology'.

I enjoyed reading The Undoing Project. Lewis is excellent at observing without intruding and those skills fit perfectly to what was required for this work. The tangential descriptions of how the ideas this pair came up with were few but relevant. I would recommend this to anyone who has enjoyed one of Lewis's past works or is interested in the psychology of our decision-making processes.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. Two favorite books?

Moneyball, a book I've covered a bit on this space already, and The New New Thing, which I have not. If you looked at my favorite books over time in a similar way to the New York Times bestseller list or the Billboard music charts, Moneyball reached a higher peak position (it was my favorite book for a few years) but The New New Thing has retained its high ranking for a longer period of time.

The Undoing Project is more like The New New Thing. The book is about Jim Clark, founder of three different billion dollar companies, and his journey to find his next project. Lewis focused on the man instead of his ideas which is more like The Undoing Project than it was like Moneyball.

2. So this book is like Messy?

Not exactly. Harford's book is a common type of popular nonfiction because it brings together a lot of different anecdotes and weaves them loosely into a broad theme.

The Undoing Project, with the exception of chapter one, focuses on the two men. Though there are a lot of different ideas throughout, it is a natural result of studying and writing about the careers of two people who came up with a lot of ideas.

two pods and a lie

Two weeks ago, I wrote about J.D. Vance's insights into payday lending. As I read, reflected, and wrote about this section from his bestselling Hillbilly Elegy, I thought of two podcast episodes from recent years. I've shared those below.

I also added a third podcast episode to the pair because I think it is related to the topic at hand (and also was an interesting episode). Putting the three together gives me the chance for a little edition of 'two truths and a lie'. So the challenge for you today, reader, is to have a look below and try to guess which two of the three episodes came to mind as I wrote about Hillbilly Elegy and which one I've just added to the list to make this (highly entertaining) game possible.

In an upcoming 'leftovers' post, I'll reveal the answers. I'm sure you cannot wait to find out the results...

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Tim

#1- EconTalk: Orphanages or jobs?

About fifty-five minutes into this episode, guest Michael Matheso shares with host Russ Roberts a story about a well-meaning couple who move to Haiti with all their savings. Their plan was to work in an orphanage for about a year. Once they'd learned enough, they'd open their own place and fulfill a dream to serve these unfortunate kids.

During their apprenticeship, they were surprised to learn 80% of these 'orphans' have at least one surviving parent. As they dug deeper into the details, they learned many parents who could not afford to keep the kids chose to give them up to orphanages.

The couple soon changed their plan. Instead of opening an orphanage, they started a business and employed many of these parents. Though as business owners they did not directly care for any kids, their employment of over two hundred people indirectly accomplished the same.

#2- 99% Invisible: The bank idea

Roman Mars makes a point during this episode about how banks intimidate many first-time users. The furniture is new or flashy, the staff is clean-cut and presentable, and the marble columns or oak doors are unnecessary yet obvious symbols of wealth and prestige. Even the pens are chained to the tables!

The point I've always remembered over the years was his observation about the lack of directions. In most banks, there is no menu, instructions board, or pamphlet describing what to do. A person new to a bank would be clueless. To make it worse, the open space magnifies the feeling of being 'on stage' in front of those who know what they are doing. Go to a bank and note the number of people who enter and walk straight to where they need to go. How could someone unfamiliar to a bank not feel intimidated? (1)

I thought this was a brilliant insight. It is so hard to look upon a familiar sight with the perspective of another's eyes. For whatever reason, I never felt confused in a bank. I always knew where to go and what to say. Without this episode, I perhaps never would have considered those who do not know.

Places advertising check cashing or offering payday lending are, by contrast, more like fast food restaurants. A newcomer can figure out pretty quickly what to do. Nothing about the environment intimidates newcomers or makes the financially vulnerable feel out of place. I imagine some of these places are more welcoming than the suits-and-spaces seen in a bank.

#3- The Ringer NFL Show: Cash flow

In this episode, former NFL front office executive Mike Lombardi provides a possible explanation for why a team might opt to use a 'franchise tag' to sign a player for one season instead of negotiating a more team-friendly contract for multiple seasons.

(It helps here to know how these contracts are paid. The franchise tag commits teams to pay a player during the season and the first paycheck is due sometime in the summer. A longer contract often comes with a signing bonus paid as the signature dries on the dotted line.)

The key is cash flow. A team with excess cash reserves can afford to pay a signing bonus while a team with no cash on hand might be limited in its options. Fans often fail to consider this explanation because they think of salaries in terms of revenue minus cost. But not all payments to players are distributed on a bi-weekly schedule. And as anyone who has sweated an upcoming bill understands, having a paycheck hitting an empty bank account next week is irrelevant when the rent is due the next day.

There is a larger idea Lombardi is getting at here. When decisions are made on a day-to-day basis, sometimes the aggregate results are difficult to understand. This is similar to the lesson I drew from the point Vance made about payday lending- to study interest rates for these loans at annual measurements misses the point entirely because these loans are often taken out with only the next few days in mind.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

1. Is TD Bank really the most convenient bank?

Thinking about this episode does clarify a little of TD Bank's recent strategy. Their pens are not chained to the tables and people entering the bank are often greeted by someone on the staff. I'm under the impression their branches are also open longer than others (though I could easily be wrong about this). Combine all these little details and I suspect TD Bank is easier for the unbanked to work with.

my only insight into college admissions

In my last (as in, final one ever) 'proper admin', I mentioned deciding against writing about college admissions. It wasn't because I had nothing to say on the topic! It was just the opposite, reader. When my explanation expanded beyond the one thousand word mark, I decided to let it become its own post. Well, here it is...

I should note the math and economics I use below are 'casual'. I believe in my thought process but, this being just itty-bitty TOA, I did not spend much time fact-checking or numbers-crunching. My apologies if I've blurred the line of fact and fiction with my assumptions.

Thanks for reading.

Tim

*********

When I decided to apply to college over ten (!) years ago, I never considered doing anything else. If I was qualified to attend any college, going was just assumed to be worth the price. This assumption is changing, perhaps slowly, but merely the thought itself is a little surprising given how strong the pressure to go to college felt a decade ago.

I sense this shift because the big chatter these days seems to be about rising college tuition. As tuition continues to rise, the debt burden on recent college graduates increases. It has reached the point where some potential college applicants are looking at these debts and questioning the value of college degrees.

It is easy to find information confirming these tuition hikes. There are all kinds of stats out there about how it is rising (so it must be true) and quick Google searches return hundreds of links demanding some kind of resolution for this issue (so it must be important). But these links don't really address why the tuition is going up so much (this article says sticker price, not net tuition, is rising, a clever premise which entirely misses the point). Without understanding why the price level is rising, I suspect it will be difficult to do anything about it.

Luckily, I went to college and learned some stuff about prices. Maybe I can answer my own question. So, let's dust off my economics degree and take a crack at it, shall we? We'll start with a simple review of 'Econ 101' principles before digging into the more complex dynamics of price competition.

Ready? Here we go!

Suppose a business generally sells units of product at $1 per sale. Each day, customers arrive, look at their phones, and make purchases. There is no hint of a shortage for the business and no hint of a line for the customer. Everyone goes home happy after a stress-free day of Shopping.

One day, demand surges. Suddenly, a line forms out the door. Soon, the queue snakes around the block. The price remains at $1 and the product sells out before closing time. Some customers go home happy, others do so empty-handed, and the employees are bewildered by the empty shelves.

So, then what?

The business has two extreme options (and literally everything in between). It can raise prices to prevent a sellout the next time. Or, it can expand production and meet demand at the $1 price. In real life, most businesses opt for a combination (and we'll use this strategy as a working assumption for the rest of this example).

It will not be immediately clear what the exact combination of the two extreme options was in this case. Most of the time, companies will not make announcements about small price changes and customers rarely will see how production is changing to meet demand. However, regardless of the decision, an outside observer will be able to figure out some part of the decision based on the price. If the price holds, it suggests an increase in production capacity and signals intent to at least try to keep pace with demand changes. If the price goes up, it shows production capacity is not going up to fully meet the recent demand surge.

This brings me to my only real insight into college admissions. Extending the basic idea above, if price levels are rising, it suggests capacity is not rising fast enough to meet the demand. In the context of a college, it suggests schools are not expanding fast enough to meet the surge in qualified applicants. Put another way, schools failing to maintain their admissions rates from years past are likely turning away candidates they once found (literally) acceptable.

This is partly based on my assumption about the college applicant pool: there are more people qualified for a top school this year than there were last year (1). And I bet there will be more people qualified for a top school next year than there were this year. The bar being raised, so to speak, to define a 'top high school student' is a good thing in general. But if the number of places in a college remain fixed while the number of qualified applicants increase, the situation is going to resemble my hypothetical business above: the acceptance rate will drop and prospective students will find a different place to 'buy' their education.

This is where it gets complicated (and not just because almost everything is more complicated than a business selling product at one dollar). One line of thinking suggests a student's undergraduate degree is an important signal to future employers or graduate schools. A person who went to an Ivy League school is thought to be a better candidate than someone who did not. Fair enough. I've been on the job search for almost a year as I write this and I've yet to be asked about my GPA. The implication is college performance matters less to employers than the college itself.

If we accept that the school matters more than the performance, it makes sense to see anyone preparing a child for college do everything possible to get a given student into a top college. All this effort leading up to and during high school means students graduate better prepared than ever for top colleges.

So, what does a top school do in response to this rising quality level in its applicant pool? Let's start right at the top and use Harvard as an example.

Harvard is currently not increasing enrollment fast enough to match student quality as evidenced by their ever-falling acceptance rate (and implied by their ever-increasing endowment which reached a record-high $37.6 billion in 2015). So each Harvard-quality reject goes to another school simply because Harvard isn't big enough. Put another way, each Harvard-quality applicant rejected by Harvard gives a lesser school the chance to enroll a Harvard-quality student. (2)

If the trend of the general college applicant pool becoming better and better continues, some non-Harvard schools will soon be full of Harvard-caliber students. There is a word for a school full of Harvard-caliber students: Harvard. Let's call this school full of Harvard-caliber students 'Reject Harvard' to differentiate it from the real school these kids just got turned down by.

At some point, my hypothetical 'Reject Harvard' will soon move alongside 'Real Harvard' (or just 'Harvard') in the minds of potential employers. After all, these schools accept the same caliber students and these employers don't really care about college performance! So if Harvard wishes to remain atop college quality rankings, it must differentiate itself from these Reject Harvards it creates every time its acceptance rate drops. Real Harvard will always feel this pressure as long as employers believe college environments matter more in proving credentials than college performance.

One way Harvard differentiates itself is to make its learning experience superior (3). This argument suggests two equally capable high school graduates will emerge as entirely different college graduates if one goes to Harvard and the other goes to 'Reject Harvard'. Colleges do this by competing for top professors, investing in modern facilities, and marketing (advertising, visiting high schools, successful sports programs, etc.). Not one of these differentiating steps is free, however, and I think largely explains the continuing rise in education costs.

I understood this a little better after a recent road trip up to my alma mater, Colby College. The school is located on a picturesque campus in Waterville, Maine and does a tremendous job of preparing students for establishing nonprofits like True On Average dedicated to redefining the very definition of 'creative nonfiction' at a glacial pace successful lives after graduation. For any prospective student mulling over whether to attend or not, my advice is simple- find something better to do than reading this GO. You'll love it!

But I cannot say I agree with how the school spends its money. The trip back to campus allowed me to take a stroll through the renovated library, have a look at the new science center, and note the construction plans for buildings going up in downtown ('downtown') Waterville. These are all fine, fine ideas, I'm sure, but they solve problems I was unaware of when I was a student.

In fact, when I think about it, I didn't really agree with how the school spent money when I was a student. For every glittering new multi-million dollar construction project completed during my time on campus, a host of trivial concerns (such as only half the students receiving financial aid for a $50k tuition bill) went unfunded. In looking at the situation today, it just seems like the incredible generosity shown to me in order to make the school affordable could have been extended to a few more of my classmates.

The effects of spending decisions eventually add up and, like many things, not always in the most flattering ways. Colby recently finished just off the medal podium in this New York Times Power Rankings of...well, just click and see, I guess. (4)

Semi-embarrassing articles circulated on poorly read blogs aren't going to change spending decisions, though. For schools like Colby firmly on the second-tier of higher education, I think it is in their best interest to remain small and spend big on amenities while elite schools refuse to expand in line with the number of qualified applicants. This strategy keeps them ready to lure the top applicants being turned away on the account of all the dorm rooms at Harvard being filled. If schools on the second-tier consistently enroll first-tier caliber students, the gap between the tiers will eventually disappear. But to get there, all of these second-tier schools will run up costs as they compete among themselves for Harvard-quality-Harvard-rejects suddenly interested in little liberal arts colleges located in central Maine.

What was highlighted to me as a seventeen year old prospective student were features like the gorgeous campus, the excellent meals, and the shiny new treadmills in the athletic center (5). At the time, I did not know most schools similar to Colby had these amenities as well. With a little more research, perhaps I would not have been so impressed by these 'differentiating' features.

Again, I think these schools have little choice. They all run up costs as they compete among themselves because there is no other way to move up in a hierarchical system. The resulting upward price trend will hold, I'm sure, as long as top schools fail to expand in response to increased applications. A fixed supply combined with increasing demand always leads to a rising price level.

Of course, the problem for consumers is exacerbated when everyone holds supply fixed. And yet, it doesn't pay to be the first supplier to expand unless it can guarantee quality will not drop. So we have this current situation where all schools tout the same expensive amenities and prospective students simply move on to the next set of criteria on their decision making checklist while accepting the rising tuition bill as 'the way it is'.

Footnotes / imagined complaints

0. So, the problem with writing these blogs months in advance...

On August 7, Russ Roberts of EconTalk released a podcast where he and guest Tyler Cowen discussed in detail some of the concepts I've tap danced around in this blog. Interested readers can give the podcast a try HERE. There is also a transcript of the episode for those who would prefer reading along.

This situation comes up often enough whenever I sit on a post. It's the Big Risk, I suppose, of waiting. But I do not have any illusions about the originality of my ideas. If I'm able to conclude colleges failing to expand impacts prices in some way, I'm sure thousands of others have done the same. With my own irrelevance firmly in mind, I rarely redo a post even if I've heard someone else discuss it in the time between proofreading and 'publication'.

1. A non-exhaustive list of why I believe this...

*Increasing global wealth levels: better home lives leave more time for school.

*Booming population growth: if we assume one out of every one thousand kids is Harvard-caliber, then more kids would mean more Harvard-caliber students.

*Stronger international competition as non-English speaking countries better prepare their students to study in the USA.

*Better systems in place to help prepare students for college such as SAT prep, AP coursework, or the Sunday True On Average reading reviews.

2. This could potentially be a huge waste of money, but it's my blog and I can cry if I want to...

An interesting tactic for a school seeking to quickly raise the quality of its students would be to offer a full scholarship to anyone who was put on the wait list at Harvard.

Also, about the endowment number referenced in the paragraph: thirty-seven-point-six-billion? Why does Harvard sit on all those resources just to allow really smart applicants to go to another school and compete against them? It seems obvious to build more buildings and hire more professors but obviously if anyone could figure out The Best Strategy, it would probably be Harvard. And yet, they do not do this, indicating either I'm really far off the mark, or...

For the record, this is where I think it gets complicated.

3. Some of us are visual learners, others need food analogies...

It's like a restaurant with a line out the door. Instead of bending over backwards to serve everyone immediately, the restaurant focuses on keeping the quality high enough to keep people willing to wait in line and be served in order of arrival. This means the staff is working at top speed for almost the entire time and all the equipment is on at full power throughout the night. A tiring job will require higher pay and equipment used more frequently will require more maintenance, two factors I'm sure contribute mightily to any cost increases seen at a popular restaurant.

4. Sometimes, we use humor to hide our pain, hurt, or embarrassment...

At the time, the results prompted me to joke about how Colby 'never manages to win at anything'. Still, fourth is good. Do we qualify for the Champions League?

In any event, I'm betting today's high school juniors won't see the charts from this article on their Colby recruiting brochures

5. Things I probably should have considered at seventeen...

I did not consider as much the school's excellent reputation for keeping student loan debts low for students with my background or strong alumni presence in my hometown area. And it took me about a year and a half into school to learn the economics department was considered 'pretty good'.