Taleb became very famous for the 'black swan' idea that graces the title of this book. By his definition, a black swan event is not predictable, has an outsize impact, and might retrospectively be described in a way that makes it seem as if it could have been predicted.
The book has two general aims- explore ways to minimize the impact of negative 'black swan' events and find ways to take better advantage of positive 'black swan' events. It left me with three major reflections, each having a different impact on my life.
First, almost immediately, I began to question the way I envisioned applying my undergraduate education. My double major in economics and mathematical sciences (basically statistics) seemed pretty handy on graduation day. Taleb caused me to reconsider my conclusions by systematically describing how 'useful' statistical models and 'empirical' economic forecasts based on applied theory played a starring role in the various financial crises of the past one hundred years.
This brief history lesson would have been distressing had it not rang so true. Clearly, I would need to think a little harder if I wanted to apply my education. (1)
Second, it dawned on me that when most people read, they made one of three common errors. They did not retain what they read, they misunderstood what they read, or they just did not read at all but pretended they did, perhaps by substituting a related article or summary they found elsewhere. (2)
I first noticed this after reading this book. A lot of people talked about 'black swans' around me but I often found that their understanding of the term was incorrect. They generally misapplied the idea to things that were either predictable or did not have outsize effects.
Thanks to reading this book, I discovered that most people talked about this book incorrectly. Fully absorbing this observation over time caused me to realize that the advantages of reading were lost without understanding, retaining, and applying the material.
I also became a bit extreme in my position that there is 'no substitute for the reading'. Luckily, rather than annoy everyone around me, I settled for recognizing the world of opportunity for anyone who actually did do the reading and doubled my own effort in this area. (3)
The third and final one is easily my favorite idea from the book. It comes right at the end and captures the essence of the text- 'don't run for the subway'. (4)
The idea made me consider- each time I ran for the subway, what was I running for? To get home five minutes earlier? This would be crucial- but on how many occasions did I return home to think 'if only I made it home five minutes ago, I would be so much happier' (the answer is zero).
And the flip side- how many times did I ruin my own experience of a subway or bus ride by running after it to board entirely out of breath and somewhat sweaty (the answer is more than zero).
In looking over all three of these reflections, I see a trend where I sought to apply the larger concept of the book in my own little way. Whether the specific domain was in applying my education, reading retention, or time management, I began to consider the leverage my decisions had on the ensuing event.
So, instead of seeking careers where I would need to understand economics at all times, I sought opportunities where my infrequent application of those principles would make a major impact. Rather than reading energetically with the goal of retaining each word, I started taking notes in a way that separated reading and retention. I stopped chasing down buses unless getting to my destination faster carried some significance beyond applying the primitive 'bigger, faster, stronger' philosophy that once propelled my younger legs.
I really admire what books like The Black Swan try to do. As people, we are secure within routine, predictability, and consistency. And yet, we are at our best when challenged to be creative in solving novel problems or dealing with new situations. This book tries to help people become more aware of when their instinct for security is suppressing their potential.
Footnotes / imagined complaints
1. So...?
As it turned out, the math background was dead useful for my start in computer programming a couple of years later. The logical thought process involved was second nature to a former math major.
And I utilized economics in examining 'second order effects'- what happens after an initial event has changed overall conditions, in a sense- and thinking on a deeper level about how complex parts interacted.
2. Item three on your list makes no sense. How could 'not reading' be a mistake from reading?
True, maybe. I suppose what I mean there is that, to an outsider, there is not much difference between someone who actually read and someone who claimed to read.
In terms of my 'common reading mistakes', I was often found in group one. A card carrying member, you could say. Nothing I read ever stuck in my head. I started writing things down three years later.
3. This was the first time you thought this?
Well, it was the first time that I was ready to act on it. I was told something similar to this approximately seven hundred times from ages seven through twenty-two.
There is an interesting phenomenon with books like The Black Swan that is similar to this. Some of the writing in the book is, for the lack of a better word, obvious. When I first read it, I was in that category of readers who would think 'well, duh' or 'only an idiot would learn from this'.
Coincidentally, I learned almost nothing from it the first time.
Today, I read in almost the opposite way. It does not bother me at all to read something I already knew. I suppose one reason for this is a low-level world weariness; too often, I've been surprised by how the expert-types who categorically dismiss this kind of obvious stuff seem to make elementary mistakes over and over.
Perhaps if they took the basics more seriously, they would do a better job with basics like keeping appointments, managing time, and organizing their thoughts. I try to get ahead of this problem by taking the basic more seriously.
Coincidentally, I now learn a lot more books like The Black Swan.
4. Didn't you once sprint for fifteen minutes through downtown Lowell to catch a train...?
Well, unless it is the last one. Then you better RUN FOR THE SUBWAY!!!
Perhaps the full text read: "don't run for the subway, assuming that there is another subway coming within a reasonable length of time and that your arrival at your destination is not irreparably time-dependent."
"Don't run for the subway" just sounds a little better.
As it turned out, the math background was dead useful for my start in computer programming a couple of years later. The logical thought process involved was second nature to a former math major.
And I utilized economics in examining 'second order effects'- what happens after an initial event has changed overall conditions, in a sense- and thinking on a deeper level about how complex parts interacted.
2. Item three on your list makes no sense. How could 'not reading' be a mistake from reading?
True, maybe. I suppose what I mean there is that, to an outsider, there is not much difference between someone who actually read and someone who claimed to read.
In terms of my 'common reading mistakes', I was often found in group one. A card carrying member, you could say. Nothing I read ever stuck in my head. I started writing things down three years later.
3. This was the first time you thought this?
Well, it was the first time that I was ready to act on it. I was told something similar to this approximately seven hundred times from ages seven through twenty-two.
There is an interesting phenomenon with books like The Black Swan that is similar to this. Some of the writing in the book is, for the lack of a better word, obvious. When I first read it, I was in that category of readers who would think 'well, duh' or 'only an idiot would learn from this'.
Coincidentally, I learned almost nothing from it the first time.
Today, I read in almost the opposite way. It does not bother me at all to read something I already knew. I suppose one reason for this is a low-level world weariness; too often, I've been surprised by how the expert-types who categorically dismiss this kind of obvious stuff seem to make elementary mistakes over and over.
Perhaps if they took the basics more seriously, they would do a better job with basics like keeping appointments, managing time, and organizing their thoughts. I try to get ahead of this problem by taking the basic more seriously.
Coincidentally, I now learn a lot more books like The Black Swan.
4. Didn't you once sprint for fifteen minutes through downtown Lowell to catch a train...?
Well, unless it is the last one. Then you better RUN FOR THE SUBWAY!!!
Perhaps the full text read: "don't run for the subway, assuming that there is another subway coming within a reasonable length of time and that your arrival at your destination is not irreparably time-dependent."
"Don't run for the subway" just sounds a little better.
