A little light reading for today. Part of the reason is because next week's post is going to be a 'heavier' topic. The other half of it is that if I do not post this now, I'll have to wait another twelve months to do so.
Now, regarding next week- there will be only one post. I may post on Tuesday or I may post on Wednesday. If the post is not up by noon Tuesday, come back Wednesday. Simple enough?
Make sure to skip Friday- there will be no post next Friday.
Thanks for reading, have a lovely weekend, and see you next Tuesday.
Or Wednesday.
Tim
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There are many pursuits that I actively participate in which I would enthusiastically describe as 'pointless'. But although late night Hubway joyrides,
Fantasy football.
It comes around right about now every summer. And since it so happens that joining a fantasy football league is one of the easiest things around to accidentally get sucked into, I figured why not share some of what I've learned over fifteen plus years to help any newcomers get started? Using the following should give you a better chance of shoving it in the face of a colleague, significant other, or Uber driver (well, maybe not that one) who convinced you to join a league under the assumption that you would finish last and simply contribute free money to the prize pot.
And if we have time at the end, I might even pontificate a little on some larger ideas that can be learned from this hobby (1).
So, without further ado, here are my general tips for someone stepping into the wonderful world of fantasy football for the first time.
First quarter- just so we are on the same page...
Like any pointless pursuit, fantasy football has its own lingo designed to make normal people feel superior or left out (depending on the circumstances, I guess). Here is a quick glossary of terms I'll use today:
Draft- this is when everyone takes turns to choose players for their team. Once the draft is over, you will have anywhere between ten and fifteen players to pick from each week.
Starting player- also starter. These are the players you choose to use each week whose performance will count toward your fantasy team's point tally for that week.
Backup player- also backup. These are the players who you do not choose to use each week. Their performance is irrelevant to your fantasy team's point tally for that week.
QB- quarterback. The guy who reaches under the center's butt and starts the play. Usually one starting player per team with one backup.
RB- running back. He is at the back of the team and often runs. Most fantasy leagues require two starters here.
WR- wide receiver. Catches passes from the QB. Usually need three starters.
TE- tight end. Like a WR but spends more time doing traditional football things like blocking. One starter needed.
Second quarter- get a cheat sheet that matches to your league scoring system
Cheat sheets, a cute little nickname for prepared rankings that you can download from any sports website, tend to get a bad rap among 'committed' fantasy football players (not meaning someone you might describe as 'crazy', though many fantasy football players indeed, let's say, raise eyebrows with some of their antics). This is mostly due to their generic predictions that reveal its users to be those fantasy owners who spend little to no time personally preparing to draft (meaning crunching their own numbers).
Guess what? You are new to this so you are better off not preparing. In fact, everyone is probably better off not preparing- if they knew so much, they would already work in the NFL- but that is a different rant.
The key is to make sure the cheat sheet you pick matches the scoring system of your league. These have all kinds of weird terms and lingo not worth including in the glossary- PPR, two QB, no defense, IDP, etc- just find out what your league is and track down the right cheat sheet. There is no need to understand the meaning behind the acronyms but it is important to match- otherwise, you might end up with a list that does not account for all the ways in which a player will score points for your team and the rankings will essentially be out of order as a result.
Third quarter- tailor the top of your cheat sheet to value consistency over upside
The way fantasy football leagues tend to work in terms of competition format is generally straightforward. First, you spend anywhere between ten and fourteen weeks going against one other person in your league. You pick players to fill in your lineup for each week's games and whoever scores higher between you and your opponent 'wins'.
The top four to six teams with the most wins qualify for the playoffs, generally running two to four weeks at the end of the year. Again, you compare your score against one other person and the higher score will move on. Win all your playoff games and you become the champion.
This leads to a general rule for August- a player who appears in all the games is preferred to someone who appears in fewer games. Another way to think of this- a player who scores twenty points in half the games and zero points in the other half is likely less valuable than someone who scores ten points in all games. This is mostly because the first player is only contributing to potential winning efforts in half the games while the second player is always contributing.
A cheat sheet is likely to treat these players close to equally. So, the key is to try and avoid injuries (impossible to predict) and inconsistency (which I will now try to predict). Here are my ways to detect inconsistency among early selections:
*QB- Avoid the old guys
Quarterbacks can outperform their preseason ranking by a couple of positions but will fall short by much more if their performance drops off. Historically, the players who drop off tend to be on the older side. Let's say 35 years or older is a no-no but feel free to go lower if you want to reduce risk.
Once you have your number, cross everyone off who fails the cutoff.
*RB- Look for fifteen touches per game
This is a little tougher to eyeball on a cheat sheet. Probably too advanced a strategy for a first-timer. The idea here is that players who get the ball more often tend to more often score points. Easy, right? Stick to the rankings you downloaded at this position for now.
*WR/TE- Only draft players with top QBs
Wide receivers and tight ends require the quarterback to throw the ball to them. If the quarterback is no good, it is less likely that the guy who is supposed to catch the ball will actually get a good throw to catch. Got it?
This means that the best quarterbacks tend to produce the best receivers. Not always, but in general, and that is good enough to go with for now.
A rule of thumb here is top fifteen QB. So, do some cross referencing on your cheat sheet and get rid of anyone who is on a team where the QB is not in that top fifteen. You'll cross off some good players but no worries- the guys left will be just as good and likely more dependable than those you got rid of.
*K/DEF- Skip entirely
These positions do not require a selection until the last two rounds of the draft. They are simply too inconsistent year on year to make any decent projection now.
Fourth quarter- try to form a basic strategy that incorporates position scarcity
Again, since you picked a good cheat sheet, you will not have much left to do. The players you do not want are already crossed off the list so just focus on picking the top ranked guy left each time your turn comes up.
However, keep a couple of very basic strategy tips in mind. First, most basic leagues require only one backup (extra player for your bench) at QB and TE. You can usually calculate when to find a backup QB or TE by multiplying the number of teams by two- since each team will need two total players.
Then, take that number and cross off everyone ranked lower. If you have a top three ranked QB, a good rule of thumb might be to wait for one of the last three left on your list. Same for TE.
Leagues generally require no backups at K and DEF. Pick the starters at the end- your last two picks should be a K and a DEF. Just too hard to predict to justify picking any higher. No backups necessary unless required- in that case, your last four picks will be K and DEF (one starter and one backup at each).
This leaves RB and WR. A good rule of thumb is to tilt toward one or the other based on your early picks. If you picked higher ranked RBs, you might want to pick more backup WRs.
The reason I advocate piling on with these two positions in the backup spots are that these positions tend to produce the 'surprise' players. That is, backup players who ascend to starter level tend to be RBs and WRs. So, getting as many of them as possible improves your odds.
Overtime- final thoughts?
So, will following the above lead directly to a fantasy football victory?
Goodness, no. Like I said, it is a pointless pursuit and therefore not very responsive to applications of knowledge. The best you can do is try to understand the general trends and avoid making any of the avoidable blunders that commonly trip teams up.
One such blunder comes from trying to predict the performance of specific players. The person who predicts performance might strike gold every once in a while but also tends to be the one who is struck down by one bad luck event- an injury, a suspension, and so on. Better to understand what leads to success in general and try to get one of the players that fits the trend at the best possible price.
This is easier to do if the focus is on groups of players instead of specific individuals (2). Broadly speaking, you want to pick the last guy available in each group. This ensures you get the best price for a specific talent level.
Another blunder is failure to avoid historically inconsistent groups of players. This applies to older QBs, WRs with bad QBs, and RBs on bad teams. The latter is hard to do much with since team performance is just as tough to predict in the NFL as the performance for any individual. But the point about QBs and WRs is important and should be taken seriously. I think my outline above is about as good as any to get at this goal.
Ultimately, success in fantasy football is probably 95% luck and 5% skill. There are too many variables and unpredictable events to honestly say otherwise.
Still, this does not excuse you from maximizing that 5%. In the case of preparing for draft day, the best you can do is some version of the above- understand the history a little bit, try to intelligently cross out the riskier options, and go with a trusted set of rankings to help pick through the remaining details.
Good luck (3).
Footnotes / imagined complaints
1. Pontificate?
This is the only word that works. Anyone who talks about fantasy football as if they know what they are talking about is pompous at the minimum.
2. A little like investing...
The investment / fantasy football analogy is not a bad one. Like any investor, a fantasy football player accumulates a set of assets. The better the portfolio, the better the return.
An investor who places all of his investment into one fixed asset- like stock from a single company or a house- is exposed to all the ups and downs of such an investment. The stock might zoom or the company might go bust just like a football player might win MVP or tear an ACL in week 1.
3. Good luck? What about the rest of the year?
Oh yeah, good point. I would find someone trustworthy to get help from. If no live humans are around or willing, pick an article from the internet that covers 'add/drops' and try your best to replicate the advice. ESPN.com is good for this- comprehensive lists of the guys who are paid to do nothing but think about this stuff all year.
