Friday, June 17, 2016

euro 2016 preview



Hi all,

It is time for the first official nonsense post of this blog's history (*). Its been a long time coming and for those who've been waiting around for it- I thank you for your patience.

*Does this mean that I consider the other posts 'sense'? It suggests that but I'll let you, reader, form your own opinion.

I recognize that most of my readers bring little to the table in terms of soccer knowledge. Its OK. I thought I would lend a hand today and preview this summer's European soccer championships (*). Generally referred to as the Euros (and for this particular edition, Euro 2016) this tournament brings together Europe's twenty-four top national soccer teams for a month long competition that is very similar to the World Cup and, as I understand it, very close in terms of importance from the European point of view.
*I know it started already. That's how things go around here, sometimes.

But again, I recognize my readership's limitations. So, to help drive understanding forward a little, I thought it might help to compare a few of the important teams to different parts of Boston, a topic which I think most of us have a solid overall handle on.

Without further ado- the official True On Average preview for this summer's Euro 2016 soccer tournament.

Netherlands- Cambridge / Denmark- Somerville

Featuring several world-class superstars, the Dutch are a perennial fixture in the final stages of major tournaments. Amsterdam, its capital, has a well-earned green reputation for its, uh, bike riding.

Denmark is a little further north and a little less renowned. It surprisingly won this tournament in 1992 after initially failing to qualify- it was included in the final field only after Yugoslavia was 'disqualified' due to its breakup and civil war aftermath. The Danish capital, Copenhagen, is like Amsterdam in its reputation for cycling. Both cities are on my short list for 'I would move there sight unseen' (1).

Cambridge features a pair of world-class universities. It has a well-earned cycling reputation, reflected in Hubway's year-round availability within the Cambridge city limits. Somerville, a little further north and a little less renowned, is also a bit of a biking hotspot. Both feature locations prominently involved in my current apartment search as I would move there 'sight unseen'- though at this point I think I've seen mostly all there is to see in each area.

Unfortunately, both the Netherlands and Denmark failed to qualify for this summer's tournament. In the same way that many casually informed visitors assume Cambridge and Somerville are a part of Boston (like I did for about a decade), many assume that these nations are involved in this summer's football (*) tournament.

*Soccer.

Japan- Maine

Sometime in the 1800s, Maine left Massachusetts and became its own state. This bold move eliminated it from future consideration as part of the city of Boston (*).
*As Maine charges drivers for using I-95 while Massachusetts does not, this move eventually cost Massachusetts-based Colby students millions of dollars in tolls (approximately- but the number is still climbing) as they zoomed up to the Waterville campus.

Sometime several decades ago, UEFA determined which countries were part of 'Europe' and which were not. Japan, sadly, was left out and eliminated from future consideration as part of any upcoming European football championships (2).

Greece- The 'D' branch of the Green Line

In 2004, Greece stunned the football (*) world by winning Euro 2004 despite being 150-1 underdogs going into the competition. Greece's journey to the championship included harsh criticism for its negative tactics- in short, the viewing public did not find Greece's 'defense first' strategy aesthetically pleasing. Greece has been nowhere near footballing (*) success since.

*Still soccer for both of these uses of football. The training wheels are coming off now, though. If you want to talk helmet football, come back in a couple of months for my 'Fantasy Football For Dummies' post.

In 2004, the 'D' branch of the Green Line stunned the transportation world by completing a trip from its Riverside terminus to Park Street without screeching to an unexplained halt, allowing passengers to board without paying the fare, confusing Red Sox game bound passengers with its Fenway/Kenmore station naming, or getting stacked up behind three other 'trains' going into Boston. Throughout its journey, the train endured harsh criticism for its lack of aesthetic appeal. The train has been nowhere near such a successful journey since.

Greece is usually involved in the Euros but did not make it this time around. In the same way, the Green Line is usually in Boston but sometimes drifts out- to Brookline, Newton, etc.

Portugal- The rest of the Green Line

Often a seductive 'surprise' pick prior to major tournaments despite being consistently among Europe's top five teams, Portugal's appeal is centered on the endless possibility brought on by its exclusive access to the tournament's best player, Cristiano Ronaldo. With his tremendous goal scoring skill and athletic prowess in the side, the logic goes, anything might happen.

The Green Line works in the same way. Full access to the Green Line means full access to the best parts of the city. For just a couple of bucks, you could shoot up to the Science Museum (provided you enjoy looking at SCIENCE) or down to Longwood (provided you enjoy looking at MEDICINE). Who cares? Do both. The Green Line covers more area than any other method of transport and thus the possibilities are endless.

But it is possible to shut down Ronaldo. Its happened before, in fact, its happened at every major tournament he's played in. Sometimes, he is his own worst enemy, occasionally becoming frustrated with a lack of service or failing to track his man on defense properly.

The Green Line is possibly shut down, right now. It is sometimes its own worst enemy as trains coming into Kenmore station (where three of the branches merge) block each other and create traffic. Passengers occasionally become frustrated with a lack of service. Once the trolley goes street-level, drivers sometimes fail to track boarding passengers properly and do not collect the fare.

My bet is Portugal do fine, just like the Green Line, but will not be involved in the tournament's final rounds.

Italy- The North End

One of Boston's historically relevant neighborhoods, the North End also is the site of several well-regarded Italian restaurants and is known for its Italian-American history. The North End is very much a part of Boston but brings something a little different in terms of atmosphere and feel when you walk along its streets and alleys. It is hard to explain.

Italy, one of Europe's historically relevant teams, also is the site of several (hundred? thousand?) well-regarded Italian restaurants. Their style of play is always a little different from the rest of the tournament field though exactly why this is remains difficult for me to explain.

I like Italy's odds in this tournament. The rest of the teams are well-regarded for their offensive capability but the Italians boast perhaps the tournament's best defense. International football teams do not have the benefit of year-round training sessions and it would not be the first time a well-drilled defensive unit frustrated offensively-minded opposition on the journey to an unexpected victory.

Belgium- East Boston

I've been hearing for years about East Boston- its the up and coming place, buy land there, its going to blow up soon, blah blah blah. People unfamiliar with the area see the name and assume it must be within walking distance of Haymarket. But it is actually not connected by land- it just seems like you can get there by foot.

I've been hearing for years about Belgium, too- its the up and coming team, look at all the value there, those players are going to be world-class soon, blah blah blah. People unfamiliar with world football watched them beat the USA in the 2014 World Cup and assume they must be good. But they have not actually accomplished anything yet- it just seems like they are similar to Europe's other historically successful sides.

To be fair, both East Boston and Belgium have a lot going for them. The success predicted should come. It just has not happened yet. I don't expect it to happen for Belgium this time- a couple injuries too many and a lack of success on European soil will probably hamper them.

Germany- South Boston

South Boston has always been a major part of the city, just like Germany has always been a major player on the European stage. Historically, each has developed its own identity to set it apart from its surrounding neighbors.

Of late, a renewed focus on development has seen new levels of success for both. South Boston is seeing it through rising land values in both the residential 'Southie' section and in the booming Waterfront. Germany is seeing it through a wealth of young talent that has recently emerged from its revamped youth development setup.

Germany won the most recent World Cup and is considered among the favorites for this tournament.

Poland- Brighton

On the surface, Poland is a little like Germany, except slightly worse. Centrally located, but not as central as Germany. Great economy, but not as strong as Germany. Germany is 80% German, which does not seem particularly diverse, but Poland is 93% Polish. Poland is among the most visited countries in the world but I don't know anyone who's traveled to Poland- I only know people who've traveled to Germany.

The only reason they are considered relevant for this tournament is the present of Robert Lewandowski, perhaps the best pure forward in this tournament (*).

*That 'present' is not a typo- well, it was, initially, but I'm keeping it- because I just realized Lewandowski is like a present, from Germany, given that he developed his skills to become a top-level player in the German Bundesliga.

On the surface, Brighton is a little like South Boston, except slightly worse. Neither is 'centrally located' but you need a car to live in Brighton, generally, while getting around without one is Southie is easier. Brighton is T accessible but South Boston's combined access to the Red Line, the '7' bus, and the '9' bus are superior to Brighton's Green Line, '57', and '66' trio. Recent developments in South Boston include the entire Waterfront while the only relevant development I'm aware of in Brighton of late is the Ittoku restaurant.

I don't like Poland's chances in this tournament. 

Turkey- Chinatown

Turkey is partly in Asia. In Euro 2008, Turkey scored several goals very late in matches and made a surprise trip into the semi-finals. Many consider this team an up and coming presence though I suspect this is because, in general, countries with a lot of people always seem like they are 'up and coming'.

Chinatown is technically not partly in Asia though sometimes it seems that way. I always make surprise late-night trips into Chinatown. Many consider Chinatown an up and coming area of the city from a land value perspective though I suspect this is because, in general, everywhere in Boston is currently considered 'up and coming'.

Not sure about Turkey's chances this summer.

Hungary- The Cheers Bar

Hungary, like Cheers, was relevant several decades ago. Everyone knows a bit about both because they were relevant in times where there were not many other options to be aware of- Austria-Hungary was one of approximately three empires involved in World War I while Cheers was on NBC when it was one of approximately three networks on TV.

Hungary moved the sport forward, at least in England, by demolishing an over-confident England side 6-3 in a 1953 game dubbed the 'Match of the Century'. Basically, all Hungary did was expose England's tactics, training, and playing methods as slow, antiquated, outdated, etc. Allegedly, this led to a review and change in England's approach (though some viewers of recent England tournament appearances might disagree). People in the world of football still talk about this match though I am unaware if any of these people actually saw the game live.

Cheers moved the idea of the sitcom forward, at least according to several things I just looked up, by its writing, setting, and thematic elements. All Cheers did was influence the next generation of television comedy. People in the world still talk about this show though I am unaware of knowing anyone who actually saw the show live.

Hungary today is a bit irrelevant and likely headed for an early exit. They are just happy to be there, like most of the people I see grinning and milling about in front of the Cheers bar.

France- The Public Garden

The garden is Boston's prettiest area. Located centrally, it is also the informal host to many gatherings and events. You see all kinds of tourists here, mostly enjoying the sites and sounds. If you are in the right place, you might witness a marriage proposal.

France is a pretty, centrally located country. It is formally the host to this tournament. I suspect this summer you will see all kinds of tourists here, many enjoying the sites and sounds of a major football tournament. If you are in the right place- I'm guessing Paris- you might witness a marriage proposal.

The host nation, if a top ten team, is almost always among a tournament's favorites and France is no exception.

Spain- The Back Bay

Many years ago, Spain established a worldwide reputation for its mastery of the sea, a reputation earned by its formidable armada. Today, those who consider Spain think of its culture and its big-name destinations (such as Barcelona or Madrid).

Like Spain, the Back Bay once had a reputation for its mastery of the sea, a reputation earned by its filling of a bay with land. Today, those who consider the Back Bay think of its culture and its big-name destinations (such as the Prudential Tower or Copley Square).

Spain's footballing reputation is built around a compact, highly intricate passing system where players come together in tight spaces and work the ball through narrow openings without seeming to look at each and, eventually, find their way toward goal. The Back Bay is similar- the layout is a complex, highly intricate system of one-way roads where pedestrians come together in tight spaces to work their way through narrow openings without seeming to look at each other and, eventually, find their way in the path of oncoming traffic.

Spain's reputation was dented two years ago in Brazil but they are gearing up for a rebound performance this summer. If they ever bother to take a shot on goal, they are likely to be among the very last teams in the tournament.

Croatia- Charlestown

Charlestown is technically one of Boston's newer sections. It left Middlesex County after a popular vote in 1873 and joined Boston. That does not change the fact that it is also one of the city's oldest neighborhoods. Sadly, its history does include involvement in a war for independence, marked most notably by the Bunker Hill Monument. Geographically, it is close to the center of the city but just slightly off to the east.

Croatia is technically one of Europe's newer countries. It was a part of Yugoslavia until 1991 before breaking off and joining Europe as an independent state. This does not change the fact that it has, like all parts of Europe, been around for over a thousand years. Its history does include a war for independence and it is located just off to the east of what many consider the center of the continent.

Croatia is an up and coming team with many whispering about their dark horse potential. I suppose I am in that camp for this summer and would not be surprised to see this squad still kicking about in the semi-final round.

Republic of Ireland- The Charles River

Not many are immediately aware of Ireland's significant presence in my background but it becomes obvious once my last name is scrutinized. I do not look Irish though occasionally I am spotted drinking a Guinness. I have never set foot in Ireland but I could see it happening one day.

The Charles River has some similar elements for me. Not many are aware of how much time I spend near it but it becomes obvious once my apartment's proximity to it is considered. I am occasionally spotted running along the river but on these occasions I do not look I am spending time just hanging around there. I have never set foot in the Charles though I concede that I could see it happening one day.

Ireland is up north in Europe just as the river is up north in Boston. They participate in international tournaments infrequently, most recently in Euro 2012, in a way similar to how someone sailing down the length of the Charles River would only spend part of his or her time in Boston. In terms of natural beauty, Ireland is well-renowned within Europe while the river is similarly thought of in Boston (perhaps- maybe if you catch an early summer sunset).

Ireland's odds? Well, Greece won the tournament, once, so anything might happen (3).

England, Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland- Tavern In The Square

Tavern In The Square refers to a series of drinking establishments in and around Boston. Like the coverage of England's national team by English speaking media outlets, Tavern In The Square is impossible to avoid if you are wandering about the city.

However, no matter what you are told, nothing is to be believed about England. They are not a great team and never have been. The English Premier League is not the best top-level league in the world- and these days, it is not even close. They always exit the tournament at the appropriate time, usually a couple of rounds prior to the end of the competition, though occasionally they will find themselves lingering if they catch a break or two with the (random) tournament draw.

The same goes for Tavern In The Square- very little of what you are told is to be believed. I would not describe one of their locations as a tavern and most of their Boston establishments are neither square shaped nor located in squares. These places are not top level establishments- and these days, it is not even close. You always exit them at the appropriate time, usually a couple of rounds before the end of the night, though occasionally if certain things fall a particular way (such as ordering nachos) you might linger around a little longer.

Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland combine with England to form the United Kingdom but in football terms these nations play separately. I suppose that makes Wales and Northern Ireland, both making their inaugural Euro appearances, the recently constructed North and South Station locations. Scotland did not make the tournament so we can put it any of the locations based outside the Boston limits- Central Square, Porter Square, Lowell, whatever.

I'm not sure what to predict from these teams but I will bet that England loses on penalties.

Iceland- Comm Ave Mall / Boston Harbor

A tiny country around half the population of Boston, Iceland is a place I first became aware of in The Mighty Ducks 2. A quote from that movie sums it up- 'Greenland is full of ice, but Iceland is really nice' (*).
*I am pleased to report that I will write a 10,000 word post about the Mighty Ducks at some point in the near future. I have a lot of questions and comments about those three films.
Maybe it is nice or maybe it isn't. I don't know much about Iceland except that it has both really long days (now) and really long nights (winter).

The world of football does not know much about Iceland, either. The little island is making its major tournament debut this summer after finishing ahead of the Netherlands in their qualifying group. Since qualifying for this tournament began in the fall of 2014, this appearance is about two years in the making (4). Overall, it is the culmination of a multi-year process where emphasis on youth development saw a steady progression at the national team level.

I picked out the Boston comparisons purely for personal reasons. The mall and the harbor have both been there for a long time but they did not become relevant for me until the last two years. My appreciation for these places is the culmination of a multi-year process where emphasis on spending more time outside saw a steady progression at the leisure time level. It started in 2010, when I never spent any extra time outside than needed, and steadily advanced to the point where having access to outdoor space became a major criteria when I searched for my current apartment.

These days, I spend most of my time by the harbor on spring and summer mornings, early mornings, when sunrise approaches 5am or so (but not that early, yet). The mall is a really nice place to be, year round, but I find it best in the winter when lights are strung out along all the trees. The way the dawn and the lights bring out the best in these two Boston locations reminds me of how a tiny country must bring out the best in its own limited resources to compete against the big nations at a major international tournament.

Iceland is probably going to do what other similarly scrappy teams have done in past major tournaments- go out gallantly in the round of 16 after missing a host of half chances.

I think that will do for now. There are twenty-four total teams but that covers the extent of the squads I think have a shot to win plus a few more that I saw easy Boston comparisons for.

A prediction? Not for me. I don't really get into that stuff. Plus, I'm always wrong anyway. I'll enjoy Ireland's spirited run in the tournament and try to catch as many late-stage games as I can (5).

Back on Tuesday with the first semifinal of my own tournament.

Tim

1. Short list?
Amsterdam, Dublin, Reykjavik, Copenhagen, Sapporo, Vancouver. I would move to other places but some of them I've seen (parts of Colorado, Inman Square, Osaka, Portland ME) and other would probably require a targeted sightseeing trip (parts of Colorado, East Boston, Dortmund, Portland OR).

2. And to be clear...
Japan was never considered as part of Europe. But this little joke is not entirely nonsense- like I mentioned in my last post, Australia is part of Asia for FIFA's purposes while Israel and Turkey are a part of Europe.

3. Ireland...
I love watching Ireland play. They are generally very well-regarded in terms of team spirit and endless will but lacking in technical prowess. Let's say Ireland's playing style would not go over well were it replicated in your living room. Whenever they qualify for a tournament, they usually do so through a playoff round reserved for a tournament's final entrants.

The most recent qualification campaign was no exception. Ireland had to beat Bosnia in a two-game series- the team with more total goals wins. The first game was played in almost zero visibility thanks to what I assume was the European Fog Convention taking place in Bosnia's national team stadium. This game ended in a 1-1 tie.

The second game was in Ireland. I went to watch it in the cafe next door to the office. Arriving ten minutes into the game, the first play I saw featured a Bosnian defender heading a ball clear in front of his country's penalty area. Three full seconds later, Ireland's captain on the night, Glenn Whelan, came flying into the picture and crashed into this player in what I assume was the least convincing header attempt in the history of the sport.

I rubbed my hands together and thought 'Ireland are ready to play tonight'. They won 2-0.

4. Is there a different word for ash when it is inside of a volcano?
Prior to Euro 2016, Iceland's involvement in world football was limited to the aftereffects of the eruption of one of its volcanoes in 2010. The ash cloud from this eruption spread across Europe and disrupted air travel for around a week, forcing the highly decorated Barcelona team to travel to Milan by bus instead of air for the first leg of its Champions League semi-final against Inter Milan.

This may not have been the reason for Barcelona's surprise elimination from the tournament but it certainly did not help matters.

The story reminded me of a bus trip the Colby basketball team took in the winter of the same year. Heading to Williams for the NESCAC tournament semi-final, a snowstorm turned the usual three to four hour bus ride into a twelve hour fiasco. Though not the reason we lost to Middlebury the following afternoon, it certainly did not help matters.

5. Fine, pull my leg...
Before I make a prediction- I don't plan on watching non-Irish games until the knockout round starts. This is because the group round only eliminates eight teams and that is not nearly enough to keep it very interesting.

This is a change that was implemented for this summer's tournament. It is a response to the expansion of the tournament field from sixteen to twenty four teams. In the past, the teams were divided into four groups of four and the top two teams from each group advanced to the knockout round. This summer, the top two teams from each of the six groups of four will advance and the four top third placed teams in each group will join them.

So, what does this mean in terms of points needed to progress? Teams are awarded one point for a draw and three for a win. In the past four tournaments, these are the point totals of the third-placed teams:

Euro 2012: 4 3 4 3
Euro 2008: 3 1 2 3
Euro 2004: 4 2 5 2
Euro 2000: 3 3 4 3

To get an idea of how many points a third place finisher might need to advance to the knockout round this summer, one could look at the average of the second and third ranked third place team in the above list (since 2/4 = 50%, 4/6 = 66.6%. 3/4 = 75%)

Euro 2012: 3.5 points
Euro 2008: 2.5 points
Euro 2004: 3 points
Euro 2000: 3 points

So, any nation that wins a match and draws another could reasonably expect to book passage into the knockout round.

OK, prediction time? All I hope for is that everyone has fun, gets equal playing time, and maybe the coach buys ice cream for everyone after the game.

Or gelato, maybe, for Italy, after they win the tournament in a minor surprise.