Tuesday, March 15, 2016

life changing books (2011, pt 3)- 'the checklist manifesto'



Note- I published this one on my original blog on March 15, 2016.  The following post is identical to what went up on that day save for some formatting adjustments to the footnotes.

*******************************************************************

Hi,

The first new post under my improved blog name coincides with the last post about books I read in 2011 that changed my life.  The immediate change is the obvious one- I read this book and started using checklists (1).

1. Glad I could clear this up for everyone!  Some book titles, I've realized in the past month, have clever titles which attract readers while giving away nothing about the book's contents. Others take on more of the 'I don't know what I expected' quality.  Here is a clip from my favorite TV show which, um, eloquently puts the idea into action:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCsl3IT4IEU
Of course, it was not that simple.  I knew what a checklist was going into the book and I did not immediately start using them once I returned the book to the library.  Instead, it required a mentality adjustment on my part to separate what I was doing into areas where I wanted my thinking capacity fully involved and where I wanted to simply successfully execute a task with minimal brainpower.  This post is a general overview of that adjustment process.

My initial drafts covered additional areas- but I decided that those might be more fully explored in separate posts and removed them from this post.

A final thought before I begin- if you work in an office environment, my apologies- this book and its concepts have likely already been rammed down your throat.  Hopefully, you are still able to find something useful with my take on the topic.

******************************************************************

*The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande

This book has the most universal 'life changing' quality to it from my list thus far.  Many read this book, apply the principles, and report unquestionably improved performances in work, home, and social settings. And anyone who goes into surgery or travels on an airplane reaps the benefits of these principles- these two fields are frequently cited as benefiting greatly from applying checklist concepts.

I did not work in either field at the time of first reading but I think I was a prime candidate for being influenced by this book.  I suspect mostly everyone can relate to my personal organization philosophy at the time- basically, my system involved an intricate intersection of scattered pseudo-checklists.  Examples include reminder post it notes, scribbles on scrap paper, and instructions saved in word documents.

It should be noted that I also had an unacknowledged reliance on my own memory to keep track of all this.  Since my routine was both fixed and comfortable, most mental slip-ups tended to be immediately obvious and generally repairable.

Combining the above with some helpful reminders through self-interested stimuli such as work emails, my rumbling stomach, and comments from my roommate, I successfully navigated my entire life up to the point of reading this book without missing major deadlines, forgetting to eat, or neglecting to pay the rent on time.  With a track record like that, who needs a checklist?

This is where I bring in one of my pointless theories (for the first time on this blog!) to illustrate a point via the 'over-exaggerated examples method' (I think ancient Greek scholars invented this particular tactic).  Let's call this particular one my 'if your strategy fails in the obvious way, you won't go back to it' theory that broadly applies to thoughtless routines.

My favorite version of this theory involves any parked car with both engine running and doors unlocked.  The driver, presumably, goes someplace (very) nearby to do something critical.  This brilliant tactic nets a five second time savings for the driver every time it is executed correctly and costs the driver the time and hassle of dealing with a stolen car when it is unsuccessful.  My assertion is that this cost is paid once per driver before said driver begins to explore new ways to save five seconds (2).

2. Other examples of this theory with winnings/costs in parentheses- Gordon Bombay driving a limo onto the ice at the start of his first coaching job (impresses his authority on little kids / everyone falls through the ice except for maybe Charlie Conway because he doesn't take falls for Bombay), leaving your dog/child outside (often tied to a pole/in a stroller) while you 'run inside' for 'two seconds' (second cousin of the car thing, I guess, so see above- the dog thing happens at one Starbucks near my apartment / the 'leave your child outside' thing apparently happens in Iceland- you'll just have to google it), trying to field every punt that goes booming your way (aka 'the Amendola' you occasionally gain a few extra yards / fumbles + concussions), catching the snitch when down more than 150 points (idiots like Harry Potter think you live 'on your own terms' (2.1) / you get dropped from your national side), and playing Russian roulette for money (big money big money big money five of six times / uh, 'early retirement' one of six times)

2.1 Although Ginny does the same thing the following year (Hufflepuff 240, Gryffindor 230) and she surely understood the implications of 'Ireland 170, Bulgaria 160'- so maybe 'Harry deems you marriage material' fits into this spot  as well.  Or maybe Ginny just is one of those 'always knows best' types that need to make their own mistakes to learn from them.  Or maybe I'm like Hermione, maybe I like the library too much, think I 'get' time travel, and just don't understand Quidditch.
The reason I drag that theory out into the light of day is that checklists are ideal for approaching situations that can be described by the following five conditions:

i) The frequency of success is very high (even > 99%, in some cases)

ii) The payoff of each success is marginal

iii) The magnitude of failure is significant to the extent that the cost of it might not be affordable

iv) The frequency of failure is best described as being 'a matter of time'- but you are almost certain not anytime in the next week

v) You continue to do it anyway because you have to or because you are willing to take the risk (3)

3. Using fact v) basically confirms that both i) and ii) above are sufficient to run the risk of encountering the downside that is iii).

The theory connects if we restate fact iii)- let us say that once the downside is encountered, the activity will likely cease altogether or require significant process revision.

Checklists come into play because they present a simple way to address iv)- clever construction and committed application of strong checklists can reduce the frequency of failure down to almost or (ideally) completely zero.  The mechanism is generally forcing users to reference a checklist before taking a process step that might be prone to simple forgetfulness or can be overlooked if the user is distracted (just to state two examples- there are many types of process steps that benefit from being written down in an organized way).

The idea is to benefit a fractional amount over many units of time by eliminating the occurrences of downsides as much as possible.  In many cases, there will be no visible net benefit whatsoever- the payoff comes from each day you do not observe an occurrence of a problem. Those days will not feel all that different from your pre-checklist days (4).

4. In other words, the impact of the checklist will resemble that of a good vaccine- you will not develop the disease but this will resemble your pre-vaccine days when you also did not have the disease.  Most people I know, and especially me, ever express their appreciation for all the diseases they do not have because of the vaccines they do have.  THANK YOU MMR VACCINE!
The mental challenge presented by the book's thought process centers around this lack of external validation.  It runs counter to our tendency to seek improvement in places that can be quantified in measurable and repeated ways.

This tendency provides a partial explanation for why we observe some of those outrageous examples I list above- the short term payoff is simple to measure, reassures us of the wisdom of our own ways, comes at a cost that is infrequently, if ever, paid, and just seems productive to do.

Sadly, in striving to find consistency and build predictability into our lives, we can sometimes misunderstand 'infrequently paid' to 'the check is never coming'- the end result being that these little improvements start to feel costless and risks being to seem abstract.

The danger of this approach is when the check does arrive, our inability to pay the cost is immediately exposed.  This could be in the purely monetary sense, of course, and that one is easy enough to understand without my examples.

But it could also be thought of in the context of not having the time needed to re-do a mistaken step or not having the required skills to repair something that broke.  Given that near unpredictability is built into the nature of these types of errors, it is safe to assume the this inherent unpredictability will serve to amplify the magnitude of the problem when it does occur.  The consequence is that these 'do-overs' or repairs will take quite a bit longer than we can afford to.

Another angle to examine checklists from is through the lens of insurance.  The entire insurance industry is built around one idea- people will pay an affordable regular premiums to shift the burden of payment when an unaffordable bill comes along.  In a way, that mentality fits here since the aim is to reduce the consequences of high cost, unpredictable events.  Having a good insurance policy frees us to safely pursue the marginal, incremental improvements that often lead to real progress because the policy effectively reduces the occurrence of these high-cost events to zero through the mechanism of shifting liability when the costly event does occur.

Insurance is a hugely profitable industry.  Like any profitable concept, this means that those capable of providing insurance take in more revenue than they expend in costs. It follows that anyone capable of applying insurance-type concepts at an individual level should 'profit' in some similar way- if not in a monetary way, then at least in savings of time and energy.

But, the catch is that this profit occurs in the long term.  This means any individual seeking to apply checklists must understand that, initially, it is going require time and energy input upfront to create robust checklists.  This upfront expenditure will be greater than the expenditure if you choose to do nothing (which is zero).

But, if your checklist is good enough, you will avert triggering a rare failure that carries with it a one-time expenditure of a significant amount at the simple daily cost of using your checklist (which is not zero, in terms of time investment, but a skillfully crafted checklist makes it very close).

It takes time for a checklist to really work because you are seeking the types of problems in which the next occurrence of failure is sometime in the medium term future.  That is, like stated in condition iv) above, the likely next occurrence of the problem is best described as 'only a matter of time' but also unlikely to happen in the coming week.

Only through consistent application of a strong checklist over a period of many weeks and months will you avoid the problems that prove costly to repair.  But at some point, the accumulated benefit of avoiding these problems will become measurable.  You will look back at what you applied the checklist to and see the impact through measurable improvement standards- higher quality levels, lower incidence of accidents, more consistent banana bread, not forgetting to pack your glasses before overnight trips- you name it.

So, look at checklists as small insurance policies you take out against your own usage of time and energy.  Most insurance companies will not be able to offer a product that compensates you for your most valuable resource- time- so it really comes down to you here to focus on preventing problems that require time-heavy solutions.  If you are currently risking mistakes that you might not be able to afford to fix with added time or energy expenditure (or even just don't feel like spending the time/money to fix) I would recommend writing the steps down that could be improved and looking for ways to apply checklist concepts.

If you are not sure when or where to apply a checklist idea- and you've already scrolled up to my 'five conditions' or even taken the drastic measure of reading the book- think about this cute little cliche- 'an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure'- and go from there (5).

5. 'Cute little cliches' have a 'bad little habit' of contradicting themselves- also referred to as 'counter proverbs'- so anyone running with this one will need to ignore such pearls of wisdom as 'he who hesitates is lost' or 'the squeaky wheel gets the grease'.  Hesitation is the idea here- you want to find the wheels that are going to force you to pull over and do the proper maintenance before it curtails your important upcoming car trip.
That is, identify what you do regularly which would significantly reduce your productivity if you missed a detail or skipped a step.  Then, write out a checklist that effectively 'delegates' to a piece of paper what you currently demand your brain to do.

Finally, you do need to actually use the checklist.  This is a surprise to many people who are not fully honest with themselves about their own work process.

I can relate from personal experience that, sometimes, you need to stop worrying about setting perfect conditions, optimizing the process to be just right, getting a drink of water, taking a shower, waiting for the wind to stop blowing, etc.

Sometimes, you just need to do it, and the world's best checklist won't help you with that.

*******************************************************************

I think that is a good place to leave it for now.  This post, like mostly anything I write, took off in more directions than even I would have predicted.  But I have a couple of more things to go on, including some additional commentary from the book about why sometimes we just do not actually use checklists, and I'll share a couple of real (and a couple of fake) checklists that I actually use to help give a fuller idea of what types of things might work best for it.

Thanks to my friend Rob for originally talking to me about insurance and counter-proverbs- some of what we talked about shows up in some form above.

I'll be back late Friday morning with a set of 'leftovers' from a previous post.  This one will be from the Born To Run blog I put up last Tuesday and is more editorial in nature.

Until then, all the best.

Thanks,

Tim